KASHMIR CM CALLS FOR REVOKING AFSPA
The Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir has stirred a controversy in the Indian establishment by announcing the time had come to roll back the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) that grants Indian troops in the insurgency-ridden state unique authority and protections but has raised the ire of locals who believe troops abuse their authority and operate with impunity. The proposal, voiced by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, received an immediate rebuke from General VK Singh, Chief of the Army Staff. The federal government has yet to weigh in decisively, insisting there is “no consensus yet on the issue,” although the proposal has received support from the Home Ministry. Abdullah later insisted the revocation could be implemented on an “experimental basis,” but the Commander of India’s Northern Command, Lt Gen. KT Paranaik warned that “peace [in Kashmir] is very fragile” and “the Act’s absence may allow inimical elements to exploit the situation.”
Amidst the debate, The Hindu published an assessment showing violence in Jammu and Kashmir in recent years has dropped to levels below that of other Indian states, including Arunachal Pradesh and Haryana, with incidences of violence per person not much higher than levels seen in New Delhi. Violence has fallen from its peak midway through the past decade. In 2009, 78 civilians were killed in the state compared to 707 in 2004. The number of terrorist killed dropped from 976 to 239 in that same period. India does not make public the number of troops in Kashmir but a former military commander in the region stated in 2007 that India had 337,000 troops operating in the state. (Hindustan Times November 3, 2011; The Hindu October 28, 2011)
NATO OPEN TO BMD COOPERATION WITH INDIA
NATO has offered to share missile defense technology with India and collaborate more closely with India on missile defense systems. India is the only country aside from Russia that has received such an offer from the Atlantic Alliance. India is also only the fourth country in the world to have successfully tested an indigenous missile defense system after the U.S., Russia, and Israel. India’s current missile defense program “is a two-tiered shield system consisting of two interceptor missiles – the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) missile for high altitude interception and the Advanced Air Defence (AAD) missile for lower altitude interception.” The two systems were first tested in 2006 and 2007. A NATO official told a group of Indian journalists that NATO and India had different “strategic situations” but “the technology of discovering and intercepting missiles is the same.” He added, “there is a repository of knowledge that we can share and we can train together,” admitting it would be a U.S.-led effort, given America’s unique expertise with missile defense. (Times of India September 4, 2011)
INDIA AND CHINA SPAR OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA
India’s unease with China’s “string of pearls” and its broader presence in the Indian Ocean have been well publicized, but now the sparring between the two Asian giants has moved to China’s backyard as well. Plans by India’s state oil company ONGC to explore for energy in the South China Sea in a joint venture with Vietnam have raised the ire of China, which is embroiled in several territorial disputes in the hotly contested waters with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman warned that oil exploration activities in waters under China’s jurisdiction were “illegal and invalid” and “violated China’s sovereignty, rights and interests.” China claims nearly all the South China Sea as its own. ONGC operates one gas field off Vietnam’s south coast and won a contract in 2006 to jointly explore two more blocks – one of which it has since relinquished -- farther north with PetroVietnam. China disputes Vietnam’s claim that the northern blocks are Vietnamese territorial waters. However, ONGC Chairman AK Hazarika explains, “The [Indian] Ministry of External Affairs has informed us that the block is well within the territory of Vietnam and so there are no issues with exploration there.” Adding to tensions, in July an Indian warship sailing off the coast of Vietnam was hailed over an open radio and warned that it was “entering Chinese waters” and told to leave. China has dismissed any involvement in the incident. (Wall Street Journal September 23, 2011)
PAKISTAN GRANTS INDIA MFN STATUS
Despite ongoing tensions over terrorism and a competition for influence in Afghanistan, longtime rivals India and Pakistan recently enjoyed a major breakthrough in advancing economic relations, with Pakistan’s cabinet granting India “most favored nation” status on November 2. The designation allows Pakistan to remove government barriers such as taxies, duties, levies and fees on Indian imports in what both countries hope will provide a boost to the anemic $2.7 billion in bilateral annual trade between the South Asian neighbors. Pakistan also hopes the move will bolster a flagging economy, despite record textile exports over the last year. It is expected to grow just 3.5% this year, compared to India’s 7.6%, according to a Citigroup estimate, and Pakistan’s federal budget is under severe strain. India granted Pakistan MFN status in 1996 but the country’s powerful military was reluctant to return the favor. Sakib Sherani, a former economic advisor to the Pakistan government, believes the “security establishment wanted to use [MFN status] as a quid pro quo for the Kashmir dispute.” However, the civilian government in Pakistan has gone to great lengths to emphasize that the military was on board with the decision. “This was a decision taken in the national interest and all stakeholders, including our defence institutions, were on board,” said Pakistan’s information minister, Firdos Ashiq Awan. (Financial Times November 2, 2011; New York Times November 3, 2011)