ISRAEL WEIGHS POSSIBLE ATTACK ON SYRIA’ S CHEMICAL ARSENAL
With ever increasing instability in Syria and the recent admission by the Assad regime of large chemical weapons stocks, the Israeli government is preparing for the eventuality that it may have to carry out an attack to neutralize them. The driving force behind this development is Israel's concern that "irresponsible elements" operating in Syria - Lebanese militants or al-Qaida-affiliated radicals - could seize chemical weapons or advanced missiles and use them against the Jewish state. Assad, however, is also aware of the possibility of such a strike strike; in a veiled threat to Israel and other Western powers, his regime has that "All weapons are in storage and under security and the direct supervision of the Syrian armed forces and will never be used unless Syria is exposed to external aggression." (Washington Post, July 22, 2012; Associated Press, July 23, 2012)
U.S. HOPES FOR NEW MILITARY BASE IN TAJIKISTAN...
After years of strategic decline in Central Asia, could the United States be making a comeback? On a recent Congressional delegation to the Central Asian state, Congressman Dan Burton, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, indicated that the United States sees Tajikistan as a possible location for a military transit center. The notional Tajik base would replace the transit center currently operating in nearby Kyrgyzstan, which is slated to close after NATO forces complete their withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. Tajikistan's Foreign Minister, Hamrokhon Zarifi, has denied that his government has entered into talks with Washington on this issue as of yet. (Radio Free Europe, July 16, 2012)
...WHILE RUSSIA SIMPLY HOPES TO REMAIN
Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry has denied the claim by General Vladimir Chirkin, the Russian Army's Ground Forces commander, that the Tajik government has agreed to allow Russia's 201st Motorized Rifle Division to operate on the military base near Dushanbe for another 49 years. The base, which houses 7,500 Russian servicemen, is currently scheduled to close in 2014 - unless an agreement on lease extension can be reached between Moscow and Dushanbe. Despite what Moscow is claiming, such a deal is still far off; Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrokhon Zarifi has told journalists that talks with Moscow are currently underway regarding the military base, but that they are being held "behind firmly closed doors." (Radio Free Europe, July 17, 2012)
A WAY OUT FOR ASSAD
As the conflict in Syria continues to escalate, so does the international pressure for Bashar al-Assad to step down. On July 22nd, the Arab League called on the Syrian president to leave office in order to "end the bloodshed, preserve the unity of Syria, [and to] ensure a peaceful transition of power." In return, the League has promised Assad that it would "ensure his family a safe exit" from the country. The Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassam Al-Thani, also called upon the Free Syrian Army to set up a transitional government, which could act as a "de facto" authority and would be ready to lead a peaceful transition of government. (AlBawaba, July 23, 2012)
SECTARIAN VIOLENCE SURGES IN IRAQ
Sectarian violence in Iraq has been on the rise since the withdrawal of U.S. troops this past December, with no end in sight. The month of July saw the highest level of bloodshed in the former Ba'athist state in two years. According to Iraqi officials, the death toll for July reached 325 people and the number of wounded more than doubled that at 697 people. There were attacks on 27 of the 31 days in July, with the worst attack occurring on July 23rd - a "wave of co-ordinated bombings" killing 103 people across the country. The uptick in instability is being driven by Sunni insurgents, who hope that by increasing the number and the scope of their attacks they will be able to undermine the still-fragile Shi'a-led government in Baghdad. ( BBC, August 1, 2012)