AFGHAN TALIBAN MIGHT CUT TIES WITH AL-QAEDA
Figures close to the Afghan Taliban leadership spoke to the Financial Times in Dubai last month, revealing that Taliban leadership may cut ties with Al-Qaeda. The four (unnamed) sources included two former members of the Taliban government and a former Mujahidin senior commander. They admitted Taliban leaders and combat elements are willing to remove Al-Qaeda's presence from Taliban-controlled regions, if Mullah Omar orders it. The talks raised hopes the Taliban leadership and Washington were drawing closer to a peace agreement, but there remains no consensus on how to divide power within the Afghan political system.
Surprisingly, the sources claimed that the Taliban would consider allowing continued presence of US bases and military advisors after the withdrawal of troops in 2014. The Taliban also reportedly accepted the current Afghan constitution. Yet the outlook is not as rosy as it seems. While some sources conceded that outside participation would be needed to help govern, they remained vague on with whom in the existing regime the Taliban might be willing to share power. What was made explicitly clear was the Taliban’s rejection of Hamid Karzai’s leadership, although that irritant may remove itself as Karzai’s second (and final) term ends in 2014. (Asharq Alawsat July 30 2012; Financial Times July 25 2012)
[Editors' Note: the Afghan Taliban’s official spokesman issued a statement rejecting media reports that it seeks to distance itself from Al-Qaeda. (The Long War Journal, August 1 2012)]
CHINA, INDIA PLAN DEFENSE EXCHANGES
China has expressed interest in hosting Indian Defense Minister AK Antony in Beijing before the end of the year. The timing would allow Antony the chance to meet the new Communist Party leadership during the once-in-a-decade leadership transition, which officially begins in October. While there, possible discussion topics are likely to include Chinese activities in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Sino-Pakistan nuclear cooperation. Should Antony undertake the trip, it would be the first for an Indian defense minister in six years. Chinese Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie has also voiced interest in visiting New Delhi this September. According to reports, India has responded positively to both proposals. Defense exchanges were briefly suspended in 2010 after China’s refusal to issue a visa for an Indian military official who hails from the disputed border region of Jammu and Kashmir. (IBNLive August 1 2012;The Tribune
July 28 2012)
INDIAN CAPABILITIES LAG CHINA'S AT DISPUTED BORDER
Reuters reports on the state of Chinese and Indian infrastructure and military capabilities along the disputed Sino-Indian border and proclaims China the winner in this undeclared arms race. China has significantly improved roads and rail lines up to the Indian border and is reported to have placed nuclear-capable missiles in Tibet. It has also recently deployed its most advanced aircraft to Tibet’s capital of Lhasa and continues to develop airports in Tibet capable of striking targets in India. In comparison, India’s infrastructure is lacking. Currently India is undergoing a 10-year plan to fortify its capabilities, including a planned surge of about 60,000 troops to the existing 120,000 already in the area. However, the primary military supply route in the east, a single road leading to the strategically vital border town of Tawang, remains unpaved and prone landslides. While India has stationed two fighter aircraft squadrons to the region and plans to deploy the Brahmos cruise missiles, it is unable to match China’s infrastructure and technology advantages. Despite two dozen rounds of high-level border talks to date, the two sides remain far from demarcating a disputed border that brought them to war 50 years ago.(Reuters July 30 2012)
CONGRESS VOTES TO EXTEND IMPORT BAN ON MYANMAR
Congress recently passed a bill that would extend a ban on imports from Myanmar, while giving President Obama the authority to end the ban early if the country continues to make progress on ongoing political and economic reforms. The bill reauthorizes the ban for three years, but only extends it for one, allowing Congress the opportunity to revisit the issue next year. Myanmar President Thein Sein has already begun overhauling the nation’s economy, freeing political prisoners and legalizing trade unions and the right to protest. In response, the U.S. has eased some sanctions, beginning with a decision last month to allow U.S. companies to invest in Myanmar and provide financial services there. Other sanctions remain, however, including a requirement that the U.S. oppose loans from lending institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Ending the sanctions would provide a much-needed source of employment in the resource-rich country. (Reuters August 2 2012)