IRAN STILL SEEKS NUKES... QUIETLY
A year on, is Iran complying with the terms of its nuclear deal with the West? The Obama administration has claimed that the Islamic Republic is broadly in compliance with the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). A new intelligence report from Germany's national security service suggests otherwise, however. According to the 2015 annual report of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Iran has maintained a "clandestine" program to acquire nuclear-related technology and components from German firms "at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level."
Iran's ballistic missile efforts are also moving forward, in spite of international restrictions. Based upon other findings by the Office, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the country's parliament that in the past year "Iran continued unabated to develop its rocket program in conflict with the relevant provisions of the UN Security Council." (Fox News, July 7, 2016)
A SECOND ACT FOR AHMADINEJAD?
Iran's firebrand former president may be on track for a political comeback. In recent weeks, the political hardliner has reemerged from relative obscurity, touring the Iranian countryside, giving public lectures criticizing the administration of his successor, Hassan Rouhani, and railing against Iran's recent nuclear deal with the West. This activism has led some to conclude that Ahmadinejad is poised to reenter the political fray ahead of next May's presidential election.
Even if he is, however, there are significant impediments to his success. By the end of his two terms in office, Ahmadinejad was deeply unpopular, and his confrontational policies and rhetoric were blamed for a major decline in the country's economic fortunes. He had also fallen out with his one-time protector, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leaving him in a politically weakened state. Ahmadinejad understood the implications, and declared that he was done with politics when his term in office was concluded. But the ex-president's retirement plans - including the creation of a new university in Tehran - have since fizzled, and this, coupled with simmering discontent in many quarters over compromises with the West made by Rouhani's administration, may be propelling Ahmadinejad to give national office a second look. (Deutche Welle, June 7, 2016)
IRAN SHAKES UP ITS MILITARY
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, launched an unexpected overhaul of the country's military leadership in late June. Most prominently, Khamenei ousted General Hassan Firouzabadi, a veteran officer who had been in charge of Iran's conventional armed forces since 1989. Political motives are suspected; Firouzabadi was one of the few supporters of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani hailing from the country's military, and among the first national figures to come out in favor of the nuclear deal. He has been replaced by his deputy, Mohammad Bagheri, a member of the country's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. (New York Times, June 28, 2016)
SOME ECONOMIC BREATHING ROOM FROM THE FATF
One of the world's most prominent financial watchdogs is loosening its restrictions on the Islamic Republic. The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has said that it will suspend previously-imposed restrictions against Iran for a year in order to check Tehran's progress on countering money laundering and curbing terrorism financing - both goals outlined by the regime in new legislation passed in recent weeks. If Iran's commitment remains consistent, the FATF has made clear that it might "consider next steps." (Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2016)
IRAN TRAINS ITS AFGHAN LEGION
U.S. intelligence agencies have used satellite imagery to identify nine separate training camps inside of Iran where Afghan militants are being trained. The camps are said to be run by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, and designed to turn out "volunteers" who will go on to fight with the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad against its assorted domestic opponents. Little is known about the curriculum of the camps, but it is believed to include firearms and explosives practice, as well as basic military training. (Washington Free Beacon, July 1, 2016)