RUSSIA HAS EUROPE OVER A BARREL Fatih Birol, the head of the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), has blasted Russia's role in exacerbating Europe's mounting energy crisis. "We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia's behaviour," Birol said. "I would note that today's low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine." Moscow, Birol made clear, is in a position to alleviate Europe's energy woes - but is choosing not to do so. "Russia could increase deliveries to Europe by at least one-third – this is the key message," the IEA chief has told reporters. (Financial Times, January 12, 2022) [EDITOR'S NOTE: Russia's failure to ramp up its energy supplies to Europe has everything to do with the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That energy route was finished back in September, after the Biden administration lifted Congressionally-imposed sanctions on companies involved with its construction. However, the pipeline still requires approval from German regulators to become fully operational - a decision that German authorities have indicated could still be months away. Experts believe that, after a period of initial cooperation, Russia's dwindling assistance to Europe is a pressure tactic by the Kremlin to speed approval for its new energy project.]
A DOMESTIC FIGHT OVER QR CODES
WHAT WASHINGTON MIGHT DO IF RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE Should the U.S. pursue this route, former officials say, it will be able to draw on past experiences from Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. "If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly," explains former NATO SACEUR Adm. James Stavridis. "And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them." (New York Times, January 14, 2022)
THE THREAT OF A RUSSIAN "FALSE FLAG" Who, exactly, these operatives are is as yet unclear - a testament to Russia's proficiency with hybrid warfare. "When we talk about Russian operatives, it could represent a blend of individuals inside the Russian government, whether from their intelligence communities, their security services, or even their military," Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby has said. "They often hybridize their personnel to such a degree that the lines are not necessarily really clear on who, specifically, they report to in the conduct of some of these more covert and clandestine operations." (CBS News, January 14, 2022)
CONNECTING THE ARCTIC |