As Vladimir Putin's international image continues to decline, his domestic popularity has, paradoxically, reached an all-time high. The most recent poll by the Moscow-based Levada Center reports a staggering 89 percent approval rating for the Russian president, in spite of a stumbling economy, declining living standards, rampant corruption and deepening international isolation.
Putin, it seems, has demonstrated that nothing can hold him down. But instead of asking themselves exactly how Russia's leader remains on top, Western policymakers might want to inquire whether he truly is.
Here, it's important to consider the environment in which these polls were taken. Putin's government has a firm grasp of the power of intimidation, and fear certainly plays a role in influencing public opinion. In a country where a prominent political figure can be murdered steps from the seat of government without consequence, imagine receiving a telephone call from a stranger asking whether or not you support the current leadership. Your answer might not accurately reflect your actual views. In a culture especially used to compartmentalizing public and private personas, a public opinion poll doesn't necessarily represent what's being said at home among friends.
To add to the fear, Levada, the polling agency that released the results of the latest public opinion poll, was required to register as a "foreign agent" under recent laws cracking down on Russian NGOs. The term has a particularly negative connotation among Russians, stemming from its Soviet origins as jargon to describe foreign spies. While Levada bravely refused to register, the accusation doubtless detracted from its legitimacy, making Russians far more leery of voicing their discontent to a "foreign agent" on the other end of the line.
Then there is Russia's mammoth propaganda machine. Those Russians that truly do support Putin form their opinions in a virtual information vacuum. The Russian public's news and information is overwhelmingly created, or at least vetted, by the Kremlin.State run channels hand-pick uplifting stories and frivolous reality shows to distract from real crises. The few remaining independent media stations find it harder and harder to get funding and reach audiences. All of this presents a deeply distorted picture of Russia to Russians themselves. After all, it is impossible for citizens to make an informed assessment of the current state of affairs when the regime's failures simply aren't reported upon.
The Kremlin's iron grip on information and political repression also means that opposition leaders are removed, delegitimized, manipulated or neutralized before they can pose a serious threat. Stories of social, political and corruption scandals involving Putin's opponents litter Russian news channels, and outspoken critics often find themselves the subject of embezzlement lawsuits. Putin's constant smear campaign is so successful that in the same poll released by the Levada Center, respondents ranked the leaders of the main three opposition parties as among the 10 most untrustworthy figures in Russia. Russians, in other words, have nothing credible to which to compare Putin's government. Under these conditions, the polls don't necessarily show support for Putin, but rather the recognition that there is currently no viable alternative.
Nonetheless, empirical indicators of the true state of Russian society can still be found. Many of Putin's critics, for example, are voting with their feet; today, emigration from Russia has reached its highest point since the 1990s, and surging five-fold between 2011 (when 37,000 left Russia) and 2014 (when 200,000 did). What's more, those leaving tend to be part of Russia's educated middle and upper-middle class, causing intellectual brain drain on a massive scale. The country's soaring emigration rate amounts to a resounding vote of no confidence in Putin's Russia by those who can afford to leave. Those that can't, meanwhile, do their best to stay on the Kremlin's good side.
But this state of affairs won't persist forever. Already, rising inflation and soaring commodity prices are beginning to generate discontent on the Russian street. Facing a bleak economic and political future, it's only a matter of time before the Russian public breaks free of Putin's hypnosis. When it does, the outside world will get a chance to see just how popular Russia's president truly is.