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A CHASTENED MODI STARTS HIS THIRD TERM
On June 9th, Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third consecutive term as India's Prime Minister, after his coalition secured the necessary seats for a political majority in the recent national election. But Modi's victory was far from decisive. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won in a landslide. This time, however, Modi's party fell short of an outright parliamentary majority, winning only 240 out of the 272 seats needed. The opposition INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party, posed a strong challenge to the BJP's dominance with 232 seats - forcing Modi to partner with regional allies to create the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition in order to form the government.
The BJP's inability to independently form a majority was a surprising outcome, one signifying a major shift in Indian politics. Modi is a polarizing figure. While credited with expanding India's economy and building the South Asian nation into a global power, his critics point to Modi's Hindu nationalist agenda as being hostile for minority groups, particularly Muslims. As Modi begins his third term, his government must also navigate rising regional tensions, particularly as a number of neighboring South Asian nations deepen their relations and cooperation with China. (Associated Press, June 9, 2024)
INDIA LEVERAGES ITS TIES TO BANGLADESH
The longstanding ties between India and Bangladesh, embodied by Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikha Hasina's recent meetings with key Indian leaders, provide the groundwork for deepening bilateral cooperation between New Delhi and Dhaka. In May, India began its pursuit of operational rights at Bangladesh's Mongla Port, and now plans to construct a new terminal there. A delegation from India Ports Global Limited visited the port last month to assess its facilities and is expected to submit a proposal to begin negotiations soon. Following India's acquisition and management of Iran's Chabahar Port and the Sittwe Port in Myanmar, New Delhi's interest in controlling the Mongla port coincides with China's rival bid to control the trade hub. If the play is successful, India will have managed to secure its third internationally operated seaport, positioning it to oversee maritime locations on both the eastern and western fronts of the Indian Ocean. New Delhi aims to expand Mongla Port's operations with additional jetties to accommodate increased freight and shipments, facilitated by additional agreements with Nepal and Bhutan, in its latest attempts to position itself as a regional security provider and counterbalance China's growing presence. (India Times, June 7, 2024; India Times, June 10, 2024)
PAKISTAN'S TERRORISM TROUBLES
For nearly two decades, even as it has garnered a troublesome reputation for Islamist tendencies, Pakistan has struggled to combat attacks on its soil from two major terrorist groups: the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (also known as TTP) and the Islamic State's Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K. In the last couple of years, Pakistan has witnessed an increase in terror-related incidents, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan - provinces which border Afghanistan. In 2023 alone, Pakistan saw 1,533 fatalities caused by violence and 1,462 injuries from 784 terror attacks and counter-terror operations. During the first three months of 2024, "Pakistan witnessed 432 violence-linked fatalities... resulting from as many as 245 incidents of terror attacks and counter-terror operations," the Center for Research & Security Studies reported in its most recent annual report. The TTP in particular maintains close ties to both al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and has outlined its goal of opposing the Pakistani government and imposing a strict version of sharia law on the country.
Now, Islamabad is getting additional help. During the U.S.-Pakistan Counterterrorism Dialogue held in May, the two countries agreed to expand counterterrorism collaboration, as Islamabad increases operations to combat surging attacks from the TTP and ISIS-K. Pakistan attributes the mounting instability to the porous border it shares with Afghanistan, calling on the Taliban to fulfill its obligation to prevent terrorist organizations from orchestrating its activities on Afghan soil. (CRSS, February, 2024; CRSS, March 31, 2024; U.S. Department of State, May 13, 2024)
THE TALIBAN'S DRIFT TOWARD INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE
June 13th marked 1,000 days since the Taliban imposed a ban on girls' education in Afghanistan, sparking global condemnation and calls for the resumption of female learning. This, however, has not stopped the process of the movement's gradual integration into global politics. To wit, the Taliban's supreme leader has reportedly secured a spot in the upcoming United Nations-led Doha conference on Afghanistan.
For Kabul's new rulers, the invitation marks a political victory. The Taliban has demanded that they be the sole representation of Afghanistan at the gather, and that civil society groups are barred. The invitation thus comes at the expense of numerous NGOs, women's rights activists, and human rights groups. (Agence France-Presse, June 16, 2024)