FOR KYIV, NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF (ENERGY) INVENTION
Amid a burgeoning energy crisis caused by Russian attacks on its power infrastructure, Ukraine could soon focus on a new source of fuel: the sun. Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of Ukraine's power generation facilities have been destroyed or captured, creating severe energy shortages and leading to rolling blackouts, decreased quality of life, and widespread concern about future energy security. A recent study commissioned by Greenpeace, however, has argued that Ukraine has the potential to install five times more solar energy capacity than outlined in the government's current plan – something that, if implemented, would represent a game-changer for the country's energy picture.
The proposed "Solar Energy Marshall Plan" emphasizes the resilience of solar energy, which offers a decentralized solution less susceptible to disruption by hostile forces (like Russia). While the government aims to add 0.7 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity by 2027, the Greenpeace study suggests a more ambitious target of 3.6 GW within the next three years, with further growth to 14 GW by 2030. However, Ukraine faces hurdles such as investor reluctance, grid instability, and a shortage of skilled labor in realizing this objective. (SmartNews, June 8, 2024)
THE REAL STATE OF FOOD INSECURITY IN THE GAZA STRIP
Since the start of its military campaign against the Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip last Fall, Israel has come in for widespread condemnation from many corners for the resulting humanitarian crisis in the enclave. One charge leveled at Jerusalem has been that its military offensive has created famine conditions in the Hamas-administered territory. In March, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a global monitoring mechanism established by the U.S. Agency for International Development, reported that thresholds for acute food insecurity had been exceeded in Gaza and North Gaza Governorates, with famine anticipated by May 2024.
This, however, has not transpired. Expanded humanitarian assistance to the enclave and steadily rising food availability have ameliorated local conditions significantly, a more recent study noted. The May analysis, conducted by the Famine Review Committee, a multi-disciplinary panel of experts, found the FEWS NET projections not to be "plausible," and declined to back up the prior assessment's conclusions of an imminent famine. Nevertheless, the later study noted, while food supplies have increased appreciably, extreme hardship for the local populace persists as a result of other factors, including "a breakdown in normal social order" and the physical destruction of roads, markets and infrastructure – all of which has made it more difficult for Palestinians to reliably access nutrition. (IPC, May 2024)
EASTERN EUROPE TILTS BACK TOWARD COAL
Geopolitical tensions and rising global energy prices are prompting a number of European nations to begin an energy transition back toward reliance on coal. As winter approaches, European utilities may transition from natural gas to coal for electricity generation in an effort to mitigate the decline of Russian gas supplies. The trend is reportedly particularly pronounced in Germany and Eastern Europe, where coal remains a significant energy source. Natural gas prices have surged nearly 40% since February, reversing previous trends that led countries on the Continent to favor gas over coal.
Other benefits are also spurring the backward transition; although coal emits more carbon dioxide, the current price of EU carbon permits, at around 68 Euros per metric ton, is relatively low. Thus, high-efficiency coal plants might replace less efficient gas ones if carbon prices remain below 80 Euros per metric ton. Furthermore, future volatility in natural gas prices is expected, in part due to the possibility of Russian pipeline cuts and ongoing maintenance now being conducted by Norway on its gas infrastructure. All this has advantaged coal over natural gas in the European calculus – at least at present. (Reuters, July 10, 2024)
CHINA'S ENERGY DRIVE
China's rapid expansion in its development of wind and solar power far outpaces the rest of the world, and poses strategic considerations for the U.S. and its allies. Research by the NGO Global Energy Monitor shows that China's current plans include 180 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar and 15GW of wind power, vastly outpacing the 40GW currently under construction in the U.S. The significant growth highlights China's large-scale investment in renewable energy. However, researchers note, there is "no sign" that the PRC is moving away from its traditional consumption of coal. In fact, despite its pledge to "strictly control" new coal production, "approvals of new coal power plants increased fourfold in 2022-2023, compared with the previous five-year period of 2016-2020," London's Guardian newspaper reports. China, in other words, is expanding its investments in energy on all fronts. (Guardian, July 11, 2024)