THE HOUTHIS TAKE AIM AT MOSCOW
Since last Fall, Yemen's Houthi rebels have emerged as a terrorist group of global reach, with their sporadic attacks on maritime shipping creating massive disruptions in international commerce. The damage, moreover, isn't limited to Western commercial trade to, and through, the Middle East; the Iranian-supported extremist group has targeted Moscow's energy trade as well. In mid-July, the Houthis hit two tankers carrying Russian oil, using ramming attacks and small-arms fire in an unsuccessful attempt to sink the vessels. (Express, July 17, 2024)
[EDITORS’ NOTE: While the mid-July attacks ultimately failed, they highlight a key vulnerability on the part of the Kremlin. As a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia's previously-robust energy trade with Europe has dropped precipitously, while a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil set in December 2022 by the G-7 has forced Moscow to sell its supply to alternate consumers (like China and India) at cut-rate prices. That revamped trade, however, is deeply dependent on Russia's ability to get its products to its remaining customers – something the Houthis have the ability to hold at risk.]
SINO-RUSSIAN COOPERATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA... AND BEYOND
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia and China have deepened their military and trade cooperation still further. In an example of the former, the two countries recently participated in three-day naval training exercises in the South China Sea. During the drills, dubbed "Maritime Cooperation – 2024," the Chinese and Russian navies conducted joint defense exercises and anti-submarine drills that included live artillery fire, according to Russian news sources.
The exercises are only the most recent example of the burgeoning ties between Moscow and Beijing, however. They follow the completion of a recent joint naval patrol in the north Pacific – a maneuver that the PLA Navy has lauded as an example of "the deepening and practical cooperation between the two in multiple directions and fields." (Reuters, July 17, 2024)
MEDVEDEV WARNS AGAINST UKRAINE'S NATO MEMBERSHIP
At the recent NATO summit in Washington, Western leaders pledged to support Ukraine on an "irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership." The statement drew sharp criticism from former president and current Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev. In an interview with Argumenty I Fakty, Medvedev warned that Ukraine's NATO membership, "in essence, would be a declaration of war – albeit with a delay." He reiterated that if such an expansion were to occur, Russia would be forced to respond, with potentially far-reaching consequences. "The more such attempts there are, the harsher our answers will become. Whether this will shatter the entire planet into pieces depends solely on the prudence of the (NATO) side," he threatened. (Reuters, July 16, 2024)
THE COST OF RUSSIAN CRYPTO-MINING
Since the start of the war on Ukraine, the government of President Vladimir Putin, as well as ordinary Russians, have been progressively squeezed by Western sanctions that have interrupted regular banking and made it harder to conduct commerce. In response, a number of alternative financial streams have flourished, and cryptocurrency has been prominent among them. But the Kremlin is finding that the country's vast cryptocurrency mining operations are coming at a high cost. The worry in Moscow is that crypto-mining, an extremely energy intensive activity, could lead to electricity shortages as the industry takes up more and more of the country's energy capacity. These worries have been heightened by a recent "glitch" at the Rostov nuclear power plant, which forced authorities to institute electricity cutoffs in several of the country’s regions.
In response, the Kremlin is moving to regulate the industry. "It is necessary to make the right and timely decisions, in particular systemic ones, at the level of the federal law," President Putin has announced publicly. "I have already given instructions to regulate the mining of digital currencies in Russia, including issues of taxation of this activity and tariff decisions." (Politico, July 17, 2024)