MOSCOW, MINSK MAKE STRATEGIC PLANS
Already close strategic partners, Russia and Belarus are drawing closer still. The defense ministries of the two countries recently announced that they had drawn up an agenda for expanded bilateral military and technical cooperation. The plan reportedly calls for approximately 160 "joint events" as well as "the execution of the Union State programs." Moscow and Minsk have also reportedly made plans for next year's joint "Zapad" cooperative drills. (TASS, October 23, 2024)
A RUSSIAN TERROR PLOT?
According to Western security officials, a recent attempt to ship two incendiary devices via DHL to the U.S. and Canada were part of a Russian covert operation aimed at starting fires on cargo or passenger planes headed for Western destinations. The plot was uncovered back in July, when the devices, disguised as electric massagers with magnesium-based flammable material, ignited at two DHL hubs, one in Leipzig, Germany and another in Birmingham, England. The premature detonations touched off an international investigation, through which European intelligence agencies linked the devices to Russia's GRU military intelligence agency. Intel officials believe that the plot was a trial run for future sabotage efforts against Western targets being organized by Russia. (Wall Street Journal, November 4, 2024)
MOSCOW MAKES STRIDES IN LATIN AMERICA
All eyes remain on Russia's ongoing military campaign against Ukraine, but the Kremlin is advancing on another front. On a recent visit to Caracas, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko met with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and pledged to support the latter's armed forces with "the most sophisticated weapons and military equipment." As part of Chernyshenko's visit, the Russian official also pledged heightened cooperation between Moscow and Caracas on "intelligence and counter-espionage issues" as part of a long term plan that would see the two countries extend their cooperation "until 2030 and beyond." (Agence France-Presse, November 8, 2024)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The visit represents a much-needed show of confidence from the Kremlin. It comes after Venezuela's controversial presidential election back in July, in which strongman Nicolas Maduro claimed victory despite widespread evidence of fraud and malfeasance. Russia's government has been one of the few to recognize Maduro's third term in office as legitimate.]
TARGET: SEOUL
Meanwhile, Russia's cyber-warriors are setting their sights on a new target: South Korea. Authorities in Seoul were forced to convene an emergency meeting recently as a result of cyberattacks on a number of governmental and private sector websites – attacks that have been tied to Russian hackers. South Korean officials have tied the increased activity to the stepped-up military cooperation now taking place between Moscow and Pyongyang. "Cyber attacks by pro-Russian hacktivist groups against our country have occurred sporadically in the past," South Korea's presidential office has said. "But they have become more frequent following North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia and its participation in the war in Ukraine." (The Moscow Times, November 8, 2024)
A MOUNTING HUMAN COST...
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been typified by escalating violence, and a skyrocketing casualty count on both sides. British military officials estimate Russia has now had nearly 700,000 of its military personnel killed or wounded since the invasion began. Those numbers, moreover, are expanding, with October marking Russia's worst month for casualties on record, roughly 1,500 soldiers killed or injured daily. Moscow reportedly spends over 40% of public funds on defense, causing widespread economic strain. (RFE/RL, November 10, 2024)
...DRAINS REGIONAL COFFERS
Recruitment for the war, meanwhile, is taking up an ever-larger share of the state budgets in Russia's assorted regions. According to a new investigation by opposition outlet iStories, in an effort to continue attracting conscripts for the Kremlin's "special military operation," Russia's regions are paying more and more - with "every second ruble" going to war participants. Indeed, iStories lays out, Russia's regions "are expending up to 83% of their social subsidy budgets in payouts to war participants." Meanwhile, conscripts receive ten times more from the budget than "vulnerable segments" of the regional population. (iStories, November 11, 2024)