When the Soviet Union collapsed nearly a quarter-century ago, it led to triumphalism about the "end of history" and the ultimate victory of liberal democracy over other forms of government. Since then, it's been a difficult couple of decades for global freedom. As governance watchdog Freedom House has diligently chronicled, democracy around the world has now declined for 20 straight years.
Today, the most obvious examples of this backsliding can be found in Asia, where an increasingly assertive China is attempting to redraw the regional rules of the road, and in Europe, where Russian rubles and wan Western politicians have helped prompt the rise of illiberal parties. But nowhere is this backsliding more potentially consequential than in Africa, where the continent's 54 countries appear to be undergoing a pronounced drift away from democracy—with profound consequences for global geopolitics.
The extent of the problem is eloquently captured in a new flagship report from Afrobarometer, a widely-respected public opinion pollster focused on measuring attitudes across the vast and diverse continent. While quick to note that support for democracy "remains robust" in Africa in general, that study nonetheless points to some deeply troubling trends.
One is that, across 30 countries, "support for democracy has declined by 7 percentage points" over the past decade. In others, like South Africa and Mali, it has fallen dramatically, by 20 points or more. Relatedly, support for elections—a key hallmark of democratic processes—has dried up as well, shrinking by eight percentage points across 30 nations during the same time period. And in some of Africa's highest functioning democracies, political satisfaction with pluralistic systems has dropped precipitously. These include Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), and South Africa (-35 points).
At the same time, countries across the continent appear increasingly amenable to military rule and the stability it can provide. "More than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are [now] willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders 'abuse power for their own ends,'" the study details.
These findings should be deeply disturbing to Western policymakers, for at least two reasons.
First, Africa is fast becoming a key global center of gravity. The continent already ranks as the world's youngest, with a median age of just over 19. It will soon also be one of the most populous, because its median fertility rate (4.05 births per woman) is the highest in the world. As a result, the U.N. predicts that by 2050, Africa's population will surge to close to 2.5 billion, and make up more than a quarter of the world. That makes the continent's political disposition critical to the future of freedom.
Second, Africa's declining support for democracy provides a clear opening for illiberal actors. China, for instance, has spent the past decade working diligently to curry favor on the continent—and build African dependency—via its Belt and Road Initiative. Billions of dollars in Chinese funds have bankrolled numerous infrastructure projects, even as the resulting debt has helped erode the independence of local states and made them increasingly beholden to Chinese political preferences.
Then there is Russia. Although preoccupied with its war of choice in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, Moscow is simultaneously making a major play to expand political leverage on the continent. Working through proxies like the Africa Corps (the new name of the infamous Wagner paramilitary group), Russia has played a critical role in bolstering assorted military juntas and authoritarian regimes. In the process, more and more regional governments have become reliant on continued Kremlin support, with all that that implies.
For Washington, Africa's waning faith in democracy represents a major challenge. During its first term in office, the Trump administration focused on the continent strictly as an arena of strategic competition with the likes of China and Russia, as well as Islamic militants and Iran. Despite lofty rhetoric, the Biden White House didn't do much of substance either throughout its tenure. And now that Team Trump is back at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, it is exhibiting a growing penchant for global disengagement—as well as a willingness to dismantle the machinery of government America has traditionally used to interact with the continent. As it does so, it risks feeding precisely the illiberal trends proliferating there.
It might be too ambitious to hope for a full-fledged U.S. strategy toward Africa, which has historically suffered from serious policy neglect within the Capitol Beltway. But at the very least, official Washington needs to understand that, in a strategic sense, Africa is very much "in play" and requires far greater engagement to help shape its political future.
Clearly, that's a reality which Moscow and Beijing have already grasped. Whether we will as well is still very much an open question.