IRAN'S KILLER REGIME
The Islamic Republic has just earned a dubious distinction. In its most recent annual report, human rights watchdog Amnesty International documented that last year, Iran was responsible for 64% of all known executions globally. Specifically, Amnesty lays out, at least 972 people were executed by the Iranian regime last year – accounting for a majority of the 1,518 executions known to have taken place around the world in 2024. Moreover, it notes, executions in Iran surged last year, rising 119 instances from the (still-grim) 2023 tally of 853. (Iran International, April 8, 2025)
REGIME PROXIES FACE THE FUTURE
Shi'a militias in Iraq have long made up an integral part of what the U.S. military calls the Iran Threat Network (ITN) – the web of Iranian-supported proxies scattered throughout the Middle East through which the Islamic Republic asymmetrically exerts its influence. But in the wake of last Fall's dismantlement of Hezbollah by the Israeli military, as well as the collapse of other parts of the ITN (such as Syria's Assad regime), Iraqi militias appear to be rethinking their future. Long fiercely independent, these forces are now drifting toward accommodation with the Iraqi state – including, potentially, by agreeing to disarm and integrate into the regular Iraqi military.
That has long been a key objective of the Iraqi government, which has consistently attempted to subject the "Popular Mobilization Forces," of which Iranian-supported militias are a key part, to control by the country's military. To that end, Baghdad has launched "deliberate steps toward completing the restructuring of the security apparatus, through constructive dialogue with various national parties," Iraqi officials say. The goals are clear: "to strengthen state authority, preserve peace and stability, and prevent any attempts to drag Iraq into regional conflicts that do not serve its interests." (Al-Hurra, April 8, 2025)
OIL BOOSTS THE IRGC FURTHER
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, already ranks as Iran's preeminent strategic actor, in control of the country's nuclear program and ballistic missile arsenal. But the IRGC's position is becoming more dominant still. The country's new federal budget, released late last month, provides Iran's clerical army with preferential access to revenue from oil sales – the lifeblood of the Iranian economy – under a mandate of "strengthening national defense." "Experts estimate that up to 50% of Iranian oil exports are now controlled by the Revolutionary Guards," a new analysis by the Jerusalem Post details. That new mandate further expands IRGC access to the country's oil trade in what represents "a bailout for the regime's true power center." (Jerusalem Post, April 8, 2025)
DIVIDING LINES DEEPEN IN THE CAUCASUS
One of the most significant, albeit underappreciated, geopolitical developments of the past several years has been Azerbaijan's growing closeness to, and cooperation with, Israel. That policy is at least partially informed by Baku's longstanding tensions with its southern neighbor, Iran, which it suspects of promoting domestic instability and seeking to coopt the country's Shi'a community. Iran, meanwhile, has viewed Azerbaijan's foreign policy priorities with growing concern – and sought to erect its own counterweights to them. One of them is an increasingly close relationship with Azerbaijan's regional rival, Armenia.
That strategic dialogue was on display earlier this month, when the Iranian and Armenian militaries carried out their first ever joint drills. The three-day maneuvers, dubbed "Peace," reportedly involved multiple brigades of Iranian soldiers and took place in northern Iran, near the country's common border with Azerbaijan. Significantly, the drill was kicked off the same day as Azerbaijan hosted high-level talks between Israel and Turkey intended to establish cooperation and increase deconfliction in Syria, where Turkish-supported Islamist rebels recently ousted the regime of strongman Bashar al-Assad, a key Iranian ally. (Long War Journal, April 11, 2025)
IRAN ABANDONS THE HOUTHIS
Since taking office back in January, the Trump administration has made curbing the activities of Yemen's Houthis a top regional priority. Over the past year-and-a-half, the Iranian-supported militants have used their strategic position atop the Red Sea to wreak havoc on maritime commerce along one of the world's busiest waterways, resulting in widespread disruptions to shipping and a hike in commodity costs worldwide. In recent weeks, the United States has taken aim at the Houthis through a series of bombings and airstrikes that are intended to ratchet up the costs to the group for its militancy. America's offensive, however, is having an effect on the Houthis' main sponsor as well.
Amid escalating American airstrikes, London's Telegraph newspaper reports, the Iranian regime has begun to ratchet back its support for the group, based upon a cold calculus. "The view here is that the Houthis will not be able to survive and are living their final months or even days, so there is no point in keeping them on our list," the paper cites an Iranian regime source as saying. "They were part of a chain that relied on [former Hezbollah secretary general Hassan] Nasrallah and [now-ousted Syrian president Bashar] Assad, and keeping only one part of that chain for the future makes no sense." (Telegraph, April 3, 2025)