Over the past several days, all eyes have been on the Middle East. Last week, Israel initiated "Operation Rising Lion," its unilateral military campaign to roll back Iran's nuclear program. The effort marks the end of a quarter-century during which Israeli policymakers desperately urged Western governments to take the threat of the Iranian atomic effort more seriously – and to take concrete steps to mitigate it.
The early results have been dramatic. Numerous Iranian nuclear facilities have been struck. Israel has killed a significant portion of Iran's senior military leadership, as well as a cohort of its nuclear scientists. It has likewise taken aim at Iran's energy facilities, signaling to Tehran that it has the power to cripple the oil and natural gas trade which cumulatively represents the lifeblood of the Iranian regime. And more is assuredly in store in the days ahead. Here are a few things that bear watching as the conflict continues to unfold.
The military balance between Israel and Iran. Israel already has the upper hand in the current conflict, but it is poised to become even more militarily dominant, because both time and resources are working against the Islamic Republic. Open-source estimates suggest Iran has roughly 2,000 medium-range ballistic missilescapable of reaching the Jewish state. However, Iran's earlier missile attacks on Israel, in April and October of last year, taught the ayatollahs that large-scale salvos are needed in order to have a chance of overwhelming Israeli – and potentially allied – defenses. That's why we have witnessed waves of Iranian ballistic missiles directed against Israel population centers night after night since the start of the conflict.
But such barrages are simply not sustainable. Iran needs to expend significant numbers of ballistic missiles to ensure that just a few penetrate Israel's sophisticated defenses. So the longer the conflict goes on, the more Iran will deplete its stocks. And the more it does, the fewer offensive capabilities it will have on hand. In other words, Israel's current, superior position in the skies over Tehran will become even more so over time.
The state of the Iranian "street." As Iran's regime has weakened, one question has inevitably arisen: could a change of regime in Tehran be in the offing? That's clearly the general desire of Israeli policymakers, who have called for the Iranian people to seize the opportunity to liberate themselves from clerical rule. It's also the hope of assorted Iranian opposition figures, who have argued publicly for the need for the country's captive population to use this moment to rise up.
But it's not clear that they will. So far, at least, we haven't seen Iranians taking to the streets in anything resembling the types of sustained numbers necessary to make an overthrow of the current regime possible. For that to happen, Iran's internal opposition forces will need to see clearly that Western nations stand behind their struggle. And they will need crucial near-term aid (in the form of communications equipment, strike funds and added resources) that backers of the Iranian opposition have long advocated.
The American role. The course of the conflict will unquestionably depend on what Washington decides. The Trump administration has, reflecting the views of the majority of its Republican base, made clear it believes it isn't permissible for Iran to have any level of indigenous enrichment. That, however, puts America on the horns of a dilemma, because Israel lacks the ordinance to dismantle Iran's nuclear program in lasting fashion on its own. Key facilities like Fordow are hardened and difficult to access, many are dispersed, and it is widely understood that superior American firepower is needed to deal with them comprehensively.
For the moment, at least, it's not clear that the White House is prepared to provide it. Although the U.S. is currently engaged in a massive show of military force in the Middle East, President Trump has signaled that his optimal outcome is for the Iranian regime, now that it has been bloodied and chastened, to negotiate an end its nuclear program. If that happens, the U.S. will stand down – and it will expect Israel to do the same.
But a different sort of math also matters here. As U.S. ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has noted, close to three-quarter of a million American citizens now live or work in Israel. The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the chances that some of them will be killed by Iran's indiscriminate targeting of Israeli cities. If any are, the calls for the United States to take on a more direct role in the conflict will become dramatically louder – to the point that they may become impossible for the White House to ignore.
Other considerations not detailed here will invariably come into play as well. What is already clear, though, is that the war between Israel and Iran – long deferred and delayed – is now well and truly underway. Another thing that's obvious? Its outcome will dictate the future shape of the Middle East.
Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.