Editors: Ilan Berman and Matthew Williams
CHINESE DRONES MENACE THE REGION
China's growing military drone activity, particularly in the waters surrounding Taiwan, has resulted in a rise in Japanese aerial intercepts and prompted the American deployment of U.S. long-range surveillance drones to Okinawa. Over the past year, Japan was forced to scramble its fighter jets a total of 704 times to intercept foreign aircraft. Of those, 30 were in response specifically to Chinese drones, a threefold increase over 2024 numbers. The rising number of aerial incursions reflect the PRC's growing emphasis on increasing its aerial warfare capabilities, Japanese officials say. "Overall, we are seeing the trend staying at a high level," Yoshihide Yoshida, the chief of Japan's military staff, has confirmed. (The Defense Post, April 11, 2025)
BOLSTERING MANILA'S MARITIME POSTURE
The U.S. continues to improve its security cooperation with the Philippines, with an eye toward more effectively countering Chinese influence in the South China Sea. This summer, the Philippines is set to receive a disbursement of funds (estimated at between $1 million and $5 million) to revamp and enhance its naval operations at Oyster Bay. The planned improvements will allow for more accessible boat launches from the facility, as well as add two multi-purpose rooms that can be used for storage and conferences. Oyster Bay is the primary location for the staging of most of Manila's South China Sea operations.
The news marks a notable expansion of Washington's military ties to Manila. Under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, the two countries agreed to collaborate on projects in nine key sites. Oyster Bay, however, isn't one of them. Instead, it is located closer to potential flashpoints with China that may occur in the South China Sea – and its refurbishment signals growing attention in both countries to fielding a more capable maritime force able to more forcefully confront Beijing. (USNI News, May 15, 2025)
INDONESIA TILTS TOWARD CHINA
Amid the chaos of its unfolding trade war with the United States, China continues to market itself as an attractive trade partner to the countries of the "global south" — beginning with those in its immediate neighborhood. Indonesia is one of them. On a recent three-day visit to Jakarta, Chinese premier Li Qiang sought to burnish ties to, and expand cooperation with, the government of Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto.
Li found a receptive audience in the Indonesian capital. Since taking office last Fall, Prabowo has placed major emphasis on forming a strategic relationship with China, with significant results. Via China, Indonesia has gained backing for key infrastructure projects, including high-speed rails, industrial parks and efforts to boost national nickel development. Prabowo's openness to China has also granted an advantage to Chinese firms, making Indonesia a hub for Chinese companies and investment. Along these lines, Li's recent visit yielded the signing of several memorandums of understanding covering bilateral cooperation on banking, tourism and agriculture. (Straits Times, May 25, 2025)
DETERRENCE BY DRONE ON THE KOREAN PENNINSULA
Amid ongoing domestic political turmoil, South Korea is still arming to counter its neighbor and regional nemesis, North Korea. Seoul has reportedly revived plans to build a new aircraft carrier as a deterrent against increasingly belligerent rhetoric from Pyongyang. The country's original plans envisioned the creation of a 30,000-ton vessel equipped with F-35B fighter aircraft. The revamped project reconceives the vessel as a "multifunctional unmanned combat force command ship" outfitted with dozens of multi-role drone platforms, including kamikaze missions. The plan, which was recently presented by the ROK navy to the country's National Assembly, envisions the new vessel – once constructed – as playing a key deterrent function against North Korean provocations, as well as enabling Seoul to carry out punitive strikes on the DPRK if deterrence fails. (Newsweek, May 14, 2025)
A WARNING FROM WELLINGTON
The Pacific Ocean is at risk of becoming a strategic arena of competition and military conflict as China expands its influence there, a top New Zealand official has warned. In a May interview with The Guardian, New Zealand's deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Winston Peters, warned that as "the geostrategic shape of the world changes, we do not want the Pacific to become the grounds for competition." In particular, Peters emphasized the disposition of the Pacific Islands, which have seen growing attention from Beijing in recent months. (The Guardian, May 20, 2025)
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