ANOTHER STEP FORWARD FOR MOROCCO IN THE WESTERN SAHARA
When the Kingdom of Morocco joined the Abraham Accords – the wave of normalization agreements with Israel orchestrated by the Trump administration – in December 2020, the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara. In the years since, the North African nation has worked diligently to expand its authority and legitimacy over the territory. That effort took a major step forward earlier this month, when the United Kingdom became the third permanent member of the UN Security Council to support Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. England’s endorsement of Moroccan-administered autonomy for the area came as part of an official visit to the country by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
The UK’s stance on the Sahara, moreover, is part of a larger expansion of ties between London and Rabat. Lammy’s visit also saw the two countries sign cooperation deals in several sectors, including healthcare and infrastructure. (Reuters, June 1, 2025)
ISLAMIST ATTACKS THREATEN MOZAMBIQUE’S ENERGY PLANS
A series of terror attacks in northern Mozambique linked to the Islamic State have disrupted efforts to restart a multibillion-dollar liquified natural gas (LNG) project led by TotalEnergies. The French multinational suspended operations in Mozambique in 2021, after jihadist violence forced over a million people to flee Cabo Delgado province and killed over 800 civilians. Earlier this year, the U.S. Export-Import bank approved $4.7 billion for the long-delayed gas project, giving it a new lease on life. But the current wave of violence has now reached areas like Niassa, previously considered stable, raising fresh concerns about the expanding reach of Islamic militants in the southeast African state. (Agence France Presse, May 29, 2025)
AMID U.S. RETRACTION, CHINA MIRRORS AMERICAN STRATEGY
Gen. Michael Langley, the commander of the United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM) has warned that China is deliberately duplicating American military engagement strategies as it expands its footprint on the continent. The warning comes as Washington scales back its military presence in Africa, including considering potentially merging AFRICOM into the European Command as a cost-cutting measure, on top of imposing cuts to USAID programs on the continent. Langley cited the growing terrorist threat now facing African nations, and warned that these groups could soon develop the capabilities to “attack the U.S. homeland.” His recommendation? Despite budgetary pressures, Langley advocated the need for continued U.S. support for security programs in Africa. (Business Insider Africa, May 31, 2025)
ETHIOPIA, IRAN EXPAND SECURITY TIES
Iran is continuing to expand its footprint on the African continent. In its latest effort on this front, the Islamic Republic recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia to boost cooperation between their respective national police forces. The deal covers intelligence sharing, countering cross-border crime, and joint training programs. For Iran, the move marks a strategic step in further solidifying ties with a key Horn of Africa country, to whom it previously supplied drones that were used during Ethiopia’s Tigray war. Meanwhile, Ethiopia – facing growing internal unrest and ethnic militancy – is seeking to broaden its security partnerships, an effort that includes outreach to Iranian rival the UAE. (The Conversation, May 13, 2025)
WAGNER WITHDRAWS FROM MALI
Russia’s most notorious mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group, has announced that it is withdrawing from Mali after more than three years of combat operations against insurgents in the West African state. In a post on its official Telegram channel, the group claimed “mission accomplished,” arguing that it has killed militant commanders and brought all of the country’s regional capitals under the control of the Malian army. Mali and its neighbors have battled insurgencies for over a decade, including by affiliates of the Islamic State and al-Qaida. Even with the Wagner group's exit, Russia will still maintain its influence in Mali through the Africa Corps, now operating under direct control of the Russian defense ministry. (Associated Press, June 6, 2025; Meduza, June 6, 2025)
U.S. MULLS SOMALILAND RECOGNITION FOR BASE ACCESS
Somaliland’s president says U.S. recognition of the breakaway African state is only a matter of time, following direct talks with the Trump administration. Since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has operated with its own government and institutions, but is still not recognized internationally. That may soon change, however. Washington is reportedly weighing recognition in exchange for access to a military base situated on the strategic Gulf of Aden. The move would mark a significant shift in U.S. policy, challenging the long-held “One Somalia” position, which some in Trump’s orbit have begun to reassess. (The Guardian, May 30, 2025)
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