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Editors: Ilan Berman and Eleanor Pugh
CODIFYING MOSCOW'S MARITIME AMBITIONS
On May 30th, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially signed his government's new naval strategy, through which the Kremlin plans to reclaim its status as a major maritime power. The plan, which runs through 2050, "answers the fundamental question of what Russia's naval power must look like in order to effectively defend its interests in the world’s oceans," Kremlin aide Nikolai Patrushev has said. The formal document follows Putin's April announcement that 8.4 trillion rubles ($106.3 billion) would be allocated for new naval warships over the coming decade. It also builds upon Russia's prior naval strategy (which ran through 2025), and incorporates lessons learned from the current conflict with Ukraine, which has seen Russia's Black Sea Fleet sustain significant casualties. (The Moscow Times, June 9, 2025)
POPULARIZING A NEW IMPERIAL VISION
A number of far-right Western public figures recently attended a two-day forum in Moscow designed to promote Russia’s state ideology and an ultra-conservative, imperial vision of its future. The guest list included Errol Musk, father of billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, former CIA and U.S. State Department analyst Larry Johnson, Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs, controversial British politician George Galloway, and others, who participated in the conference alongside Kremlin officials and pro-Putin propagandists.
The so-called "Forum for the Future" was hosted at the Tsargrad Institute, founded by media magnate Konstantin Malofeyev and led by prominent ideologue Alexander Dugin. The forum also served as the launch event for the Tsargrad Institute's new report, which lays out a vision for the country through the middle of the 21st century. "By launching the Special Military Operation and openly challenging the hegemony of the West, Russia has entered the struggle not only for its sovereignty, but also for the right of every country to its own development, culture and religion," the report proclaims. It calls for Moscow to dismantle the "artificially created 'Ukrainian nation,'" and argues that Russia must be an autocracy to succeed, citing the regimes of Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, and Josef Stalin as examples of similar illiberal greatness. (The Moscow Times, June 9, 2025)
THE GEARS OF DUBIOUS RUSSIAN JUSTICE GRIND ON
Leonid Volkov, a former ally of late anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, was given an 18 year sentence by a Russian court in absentia on June 11th. Volkov was convicted for 40 counts of criminal charges, including "justifying terrorism, organizing and financing an extremist group, rehabilitating Nazism, and creating a non-governmental organization that violated citizens' rights." Volkov led Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation from 2021-2023, a position that earned him a place on Russia's terrorist list. Volkov fled Russia a number of years ago.
Volkov, however, is not the only prominent activist at whom the Kremlin has taken aim in recent days. Lev Shlosberg, senior member of the opposition Yabloko party, was detained for discrediting the Russian army. A Pskov court ordered Shlosberg to be placed under house arrest for two months while awaiting trial. Authorities accuse Shlosberg of discrediting Russia's military by voicing support for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Shlosberg was previously named a foreign agent due to his political activities, and now faces up to five years in prison. (Associated Press, June 11, 2025)
RUSSIA'S NATIONAL WEALTH FUND AT RISK
While it is clear that Russia's economy has suffered as a result of President Putin's war on Ukraine, government officials have long refused to acknowledge precisely how much. However, a new report from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) and the Gaidar Institute includes a warning that Russia's National Wealth Fund could be depleted by 2026 if current economic conditions persist. The study lays out that the NWF, which is capitalized from oil and gas revenue, is now at risk as a result of falling oil prices, growing budget deficits, state withdrawals to fund infrastructure projects, and assorted Kremlin bailouts.
The numbers are striking. The NWF, the key wealth cushion for the Russian state, held just $36.4 billion on June 1st, its lowest value since 2019 and a drastic constriction from its peak of $113.5 billion in early 2022. Falling oil prices have foiled the Kremlin's plans to restart contributions to the fund this year. And Russia's current budget entails withdrawing from the fund if oil prices fall below $60 per barrel. (The Moscow Times, June 9, 2025)
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