|
Editors: Ilan Berman and Calla O'Neil
SPECIAL ISSUE: AFTER THE ISRAEL-IRAN WAR
On June 13th, Israel launched a military campaign aimed at neutralizing the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program. Twelve days later, and following a limited military intervention by the United States that likewise targeted a number of critical Iranian nuclear sites, the conflict concluded. But the ramifications of the so-called "Twelve Day War" have already been profound, both for Iran's internal politics and for its relationship with the international community.
QUESTIONS ABOUT KHAMENEI'S CONTINUED RELEVANCE...
Iran's Supreme Leader is supposed to be the ultimate decision-maker in the Islamic Republic, serving as both the country's rahbar (political leader) and marja taqlid (model of religious emulation) for the country's populace. But questions are now swirling about the future role of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after reports that he was sidelined from negotiations that led to the recent ceasefire agreement with Israel. Faced with the need for rapid decision-making and amid heightened security concerns, regime officials reportedly bypassed direct communication with Khamenei. Adding to the rumors, earlier in June Khamenei is believed to have delegated key national security and strategic decision-making authority to the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The move was intended to ensure the continuity of leadership in the event of threats to the Supreme Leader's safety – but it also potentially provides a path to political dominance for the country's clerical army. (Iran International, June 26, 2025)
...AS SUCCESSION PLANNING SPEEDS UP
Relatedly, Iran's planning for leadership succession – long a charged political issue – appears to be gaining even greater urgency in the wake of the war. Regime insiders report that the clerical committee tasked with selecting a successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has accelerated its search efforts. With Khamenei and his family reportedly in hiding due to recent security threats, the regime is preparing to name a successor immediately in the event of his death in order to project stability and continuity.
Two names have emerged as leading contenders in this regard. The first is Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's 56-year-old son, who is seen as the ideological heir to his father's hardline policies. The second is Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic. Khomeini, a "reformist" who is said to support loosening domestic social and political restrictions, is viewed by some as a more favorable choice in the face of ongoing tensions with the United States. (Reuters, June 23, 2025)
AN END TO NUCLEAR COOPERATION...
On June 25th, Iranian lawmakers unanimously voted to suspend all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The legislation calls for a full cessation of inspections, reporting, and oversight activities required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which Iran has been a signatory since 1970. The Iranian regime has long accused the IAEA of bias, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has warned of Tehran's lack of transparency and failure to cooperate with ongoing investigations into its nuclear activities. The measure now awaits approval by the country's Supreme National Security Council. (RFE/RL, June 25, 2025)
...AND A WIDER DESCRIPTION OF SPYING
In the wake of its ongoing conflict with Israel, the Islamic Republic is intensifying its use of internal repression – as well as the formal justification for it. Just days after the end of the war, the regime carried out the execution of three men accused of collaborating with Israeli intelligence. State media charged that the individuals had also planned to establish contact with affiliates of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's former Shah.
The executions came just one day after the passage of emergency legislation that classifies espionage for the United States or Israel as "corruption on Earth," a capital offense under Iran's Islamic penal code. The law's broad scope criminalizes a wide array of activities, including the sharing of images with foreign media, social media engagement with Israeli-linked accounts, and contact with exiled opposition figures. (IranWire, June 26, 2025)
|
