RUSSIA RAMPS UP CHEMICAL WEAPONS USAGE IN UKRAINE
Over the past month, Dutch and German intelligence services have reported that Russia is increasing its unlawful use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. According to Dutch military and security organizations, the use of World War I-era gas chloropicrin and riot control agent CS to force Ukrainian soldiers into the open from fortified positions has become "standardized and commonplace." According to the Dutch Military Intelligence Agency, at least three Ukrainian deaths have been attributed to chemical weapons, and over 2,500 soldiers injured in combat have reported chemical weapons-related symptoms. In total, Ukraine alleges that Russia has used chemical weapons in over 9,000 instances since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The news is noteworthy, because Russia is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits the weaponized use of chloropicrin and CS. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans has warned about the precedent of their renewed battlefield usage, arguing that it "is not only dangerous for Ukraine, but also for the rest of Europe and the world." While Russia has not commented on these intelligence findings, it has previously denied employing chemical weapons in the conflict, even going so far as to accuse Ukraine of being the one to use banned chemical weapons. Ukraine has submitted an official request to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) asking for an official investigation into Russia's chemical weapons usage on the first day of the UN agency's closed-door annual meeting in early July. (Reuters, July 8, 2025; Associated Press, July 4, 2025)
PYONGYANG SUPPLIES 40% OF RUSSIA'S WEAPONS: UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE
Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, has charged that 40 percent of Russia's weapons are now coming from North Korea. The military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang has deepened since Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty last June. According to Ukrainian estimates, it now involves North Korea's provision of thousands of troops, millions of artillery rounds, and numerous missiles in exchange for Russian technology and financial investment. Kim has vowed to support Russia "unconditionally" in its war on Ukraine. (Bloomberg, July 11, 2025)
RUSSIA'S SHADOW FLEET HAS TRIPLED
Russia's "shadow fleet," the array of ships that Moscow has used to carry out oil trade in contravention to Western sanctions, now numbers between 300 and 600 – a significant increase since 2022, when it was comprised of a mere 100 ships. A Dryad Global study investigated the fleet, indicating that around 40 percent of the tankers were purchased from EU sellers. The average shadow tanker is said to be between 20 and 25 years old, significantly older than the global average age for oil tankers of 13 years.
The U.S., EU and UK imposed joint sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet between January and May 2025. Altogether, about 270 ships are now covered by Western sanctions. However, Russian shadow tankers use various methods to avoid detection. Owners often alter Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Crews can reclassify tankers to avoid regulations and turn off transponders in high-risk areas, or even transmit false location data. Tankers are able to change names and switch flags in days with digital certificates. "Cargo concealment is the final step. Offshore transfers near Lomé, Ceuta, or Kandla often blend Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude into mixed cargoes labelled as generic fuel oil. This makes origin tracing difficult and hampers the enforcement of sanctions and price caps," the report describes. (Ukrainska Pravda, July 3, 2025)
GPS JAMMING IN THE BALTIC SEA
A multinational research group led by Jaroslaw Cidejko of Gdynia Maritime University has concluded that Russia is jamming the GPS satellite navigation system in the Baltics. The researchers used triangulation to determine that the jamming originates from the Okunevo antenna complex, home to 32-meter-tall antennas built to jam communications systems, and the city of Baltiysk, which houses Russia's Baltic Fleet. Russia's jamming operation has caused navigation disruptions for thousands of planes and ships.
Officials from all three Baltic states have directly accused Russia of hybrid warfare in the form of this signal jamming. Estonian Defense Forces Commander Martin Herem has even accused Russia of disrupting GPS in the Baltics as part of preparations for a war with the Baltic states. However, as the Gdynia Maritime University team noted, interference in NATO countries neighboring Russia could simply be a byproduct of Russian efforts to protect military sites, rather than the result of deliberate action. In response, several Baltic nations are working on alternative land-based navigation systems, scheduled for completion by 2026. (The Moscow Times, July 3, 2025)