American Foreign Policy Council

Africa Political Monitor No. 55

August 12, 2025 Lilly Harvey, Alexander Brown
Related Categories: Democracy and Governance; Intelligence and Counterintelligence; Public Diplomacy and Information Operations; Warfare; Africa; Sudan; North Africa; South Africa; United States; West Africa

DRC, M23 SIGN QATAR CEASEFIRE
The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and M23 rebels have signed a permanent ceasefire agreement in Doha, Qatar. The deal, dubbed the “Declaration of Principles,” commits both sides to halt attacks, avoid territorial expansion, and cease hate propaganda. A final peace agreement is due by August 18th and is expected to align with the U.S.-brokered DRC-Rwanda deal signed in Washington last month. Meanwhile, the U.S. has increased its involvement in the DRC, pursuing mining deals and aiming to counter China’s regional influence. Rights groups, however, continue to report atrocities by both Congolese forces and M23 rebels. (Associated Press, July 20, 2025; BBC, July 19, 2025)

MILITANTS EXPLOIT STARLINK IN THE SAHEL
Militant groups across West Africa are increasingly exploiting satellite internet connectivity provided by Starlink to coordinate attacks, evade surveillance, and enhance battlefield communications. Footage and seized equipment confirm that jihadist factions, including Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in Mali and Boko Haram in Nigeria, are harnessing the connectivity tool, despite Starlink not being officially authorized in those countries. Starlink’s portability, encrypted high speed access, and its ability to operate in remote areas have made it a valuable tool for insurgents. Nigerian security forces have also reported seizing terminals during counterterrorism raids. (Business Insider, July 7, 2025)

BURKINA FASO’S JUNTA DISSOLVES ELECTORAL COMMISSION
Burkina Faso’s military rulers have disbanded the country’s electoral commission, shifting election oversight to the Interior Ministry in what they claim is a cost-cutting and sovereignty-strengthening move. The junta, which took power in 2022, has postponed elections until at least July 2029, effectively extending Capt. Ibrahim Traoré’s rule. Officials say the commission’s $870,000 annual budget was wasteful and opened the door to foreign influence. Rights groups, however, warn that the move further undermines democratic institutions in a country already facing mounting repression and insecurity. Despite official pledges to restore order, violence in the West African state has surged: al-Qaeda–linked militants reportedly carried out more than 280 attacks in the first half of 2025 alone, double the number from last year. (BBC, July 17, 2025)

U.S. SUSPENDS SUDAN PEACE TALKS AMID POST-WAR POWER DISPUTE
The United States has called off a planned meeting of the Sudan peace “Quad” (comprising the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt) after a dispute over language in a proposed joint statement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was set to host the talks in Washington, which aimed to revive negotiations between Sudan’s warring generals. However, Egypt reportedly objected to a clause stating that neither the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) nor the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) should head a future transitional government. Egypt has historic ties with Sudan’s military, while the UAE has been accused of backing the RSF. Talks may resume during the UN General Assembly in September. The war, now in its third year, has killed an estimated 150,000 and displaced millions, with both factions declaring rival governments and raising fears of national fracture. The Trump administration has prioritized Sudan in its broader regional diplomacy push, though past peace efforts have failed to resolve the dispute. (Bloomberg, July 30, 2025)

CHOPPY DIPLOMATIC WATERS FOR CAPETOWN
Former South African President Jacob Zuma has publicly broken with the African National Congress (ANC)’s long-standing support for Western Sahara’s independence, signaling a dramatic foreign policy shift through his new uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party. During a high-profile visit to Morocco, Zuma and MK officials called for backing Rabat’s autonomy plan, describing it as a pragmatic step toward African unity and regional stability. The move comes as South Africa faces mounting international pressure: in Washington, U.S. lawmakers advanced a bill that would mandate a full review of bilateral ties and open the door to sanctions on South African officials over their ties with Russia, China, and their alleged support for Hamas. The bill, championed by Republicans aligned with the Trump administration, also cites South Africa’s genocide case against Israel and accuses the Ramaphosa government of abandoning Western alliances. (The Africa Report, July 17, 2025; Reuters, July 23, 2025)

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