Russia Policy Monitor No. 2702

RUSSIA'S REVIVED NEO-NAZI MOVEMENT
Xenophobia is once again on the rise in Russia, with violent gangs of young people attacking migrants, activists, and the homeless. Far-right crime has surged to the levels of the early 2000s, with perpetrators as young as 12 and 13 (and an average age of just 16), who have been radicalized primarily through social media app TikTok. These groups stage attacks designed for media consumption, filming and posting their attacks online or in closed neo-Nazi channels, which can have up to 23,000 members. This has produced a novel, and dangerous, element of competition as teenagers compete for the most viral, violent video.

The groups also specialize in "pedophile hunting," luring alleged predators on dating apps and then coercing apologies or inflicting beatings. State anti-migrant rhetoric has served as a major catalyst for the resurgence, framing migrants as responsible for growing violent crime in the country – although statistical evidence suggests the opposite. So far, most of the recorded violence has been relatively minor, but experts warn that as the groups age their brutality will only increase. (Bumaga, October 28, 2025)

EUROPE NEEDS A NEW KIND OF DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA, ESTONIA ARGUES
As Russia's aggression against Ukraine approaches its fourth year, Estonian President Alar Karis has implored Europe to prepare for a new kind of war with Moscow. Karis cited recent Russian hybrid actions in the Baltic states and beyond as a "blatant breach of sovereignty and international law," calling them evidence of Russia's evolving style of warfare. Karis characterized the war in Ukraine as an affront not only to Europe but the broader "Western world." In response, he emphasized the need for deterrence and readiness.

Estonia and its Baltic neighbors have put their money where their mouths are. The three countries are all increasing defense spending, aiming to meet the 5% of GDP threshold set by NATO back in June. Karis has encouraged other European states to work toward this goal as well. However, he counsels, patience will be necessary as states on the continent make major budgetary changes. (Newsweek, October 26, 2025)

A DIFFERENT KIND OF RUSSIAN PURGE
In recent weeks, government purges within Russia have increasingly targeted a new cohort: once glorified pro-war activists and commentators. Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to silence war opposition, rewarding pro-war figures with influence and riches. But as the country's anti-war opposition has progressively been ground down, Moscow has turned its attention to its own supporters in a move reminiscent of Stalin-era purges.

There are said to be two main groups within Russian war supporters. The first are loyalists, more traditional hawks with close relations to the defense ministry or the Kremlin. The second are "Z-bloggers," those within the massive grassroots social media movement characterized by ultranationalism. These "Z-bloggers" who now find themselves the target of Kremlin investigations into fraud, terrorism, and extremism, on account of them constituting a “potentially dangerous” contingent. (The Guardian, November 6, 2025)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The targeting of "Z-bloggers" and ultranationalists is potentially significant, insofar as it signals a shifting calculus on the part of the Kremlin. Any compromise over Ukraine, or a scaling down of the country's war aims, is likely to be met with opposition from this contingent, whose members have staked their reputations and identities on pro-war advocacy. As such, they represent a constraint on the Kremlin's freedom of political maneuver – one that Putin and his circle are now attempting to eliminate.]