RUSSIA'S INTELLIGENCE FAILURES IN UKRAINE
In a recent, and surprisingly candid, interview, a former Russian military commander has given the country's intelligence community a "failing grade" for their analyses in the lead-up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russian intelligence had expected the support of 70% of Ukrainians, predicting an extremely swift victory, Gen. Vladimir Chirkin, a former commander of Russian ground forces, told Russian news outlet RBC. In reality, he pointed out, support for a Russian intervention hovered around just 30%. Chirkin also noted that projections of a relatively easy seizure of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, proved misguided as well, with Russian troops forced to withdraw from the Kyiv region after a month of bloody conflict. Those miscalculations, Chirkin suggests, are part of a larger historical pattern in which Moscow often underestimates its opponent while also overestimating its own ability. (Business Insider, December 4, 2025)
[EDITORS' NOTE: While Chirkin was careful to avoid directly criticizing the Kremlin or questioning its justification for its invasion of Ukraine, his statements are not without risk. Spreading "false information," a broadly category used to Russian authorities to target war critics, is now punishable by up to 15 years in prison. As such, Chirkin's assessment is an indicator of mounting unease with the conflict among military professionals in Russia.]
MEDVEDEV: EU LOAN WOULD BE A CASUS BELLI
As the European Union ponders whether to repurpose frozen Russian assets into a loan to Ukraine, Russian authorities are warning of potentially dire consequences for such a move. According to deputy Security Council Chairman (and former President) Dmitry Medvedev, such an action would be tantamount to a justification for war between Russia and the West. He went on to say that the reparations loan would have "implications for Brussels and individual EU countries." Notably, Russia's warnings have had at least some effect. Belgium's government has emerged as an opponent of such a step, in part because of the potential consequences threatened by the Kremlin. (Reuters, December 4, 2025)
MOSCOW'S TANK PLANS
Just two weeks after Putin's repeated assertion that he would forcibly seize the Ukrainian territories that it claims, leaked documents from a tank manufacturer in Russia reveal the Kremlin's plans to strengthen its tank fleet significantly over the coming decade. Moscow has apparently ordered that, by 2036, the firm in question should produce parts to build or refurbish 2,600 tanks, helping to replace the over 4,000 lost to date in Ukraine. Moreover, more than half of the ordered parts will be used for new vehicles, meaning production capacity will increase well beyond earlier Western estimates.
That, in turn, might be a portent of things to come. Tank warfare has not played a major role in the current war with Ukraine, which has been dominated by unmanned platforms such as aerial drones. However, Russia views tanks as vital for larger-scale conflict, such as possible future clash with NATO. (The European Conservative, December 5, 2025)
AN INSIDER'S LOOK AT RUSSIA’S MILITARY DISARRAY
A recent interview with Meduza, Yevgeny Korobov, a senior lieutenant who deserted the Russian army after months of fighting in Ukraine, reveals the abysmal conditions that permeate Moscow's military. Korobov, who first saw combat in Syria, said that he joined with "noble ideas about service" but soon experienced "idiocy, total incompetence, and people treating [him] like garbage." He was transferred to the Ukrainian border weeks before the invasion, but told there would be no conflict, that the state was "just flexing" its muscles. Just weeks after being hailed a hero for escaping an ambush and returning fire, Korobov chose to shoot himself and two fellow soldiers in the leg rather than going on a hopeless mission. (Meduza, December 5, 2025)
MRUSSIA'S MERCENARIES VISIT HORRORS ON AFRICA
The Africa Corps, the successor of Russia's notorious Wagner mercenary group, has reportedly been carrying out human rights abuses, including rapes and public executions, in collaboration with Mali's government. Mali and other African governments have turned to Russia for help with curbing rampant violent extremism on the continent, but the results have been a continuation of Wagner's "reign of terror" – replete with human rights violations and atrocities such as organ harvesting and decapitations. "It's a scorched-earth policy," one local Malian official tells the Associated Press. (Associated Press, December 7, 2025)
[EDITORS' NOTE: The question of attribution is relevant here. While still under the control of Yevgeny Prighozhin, Wagner operated as a more or less independent entity – aligned with but separate from official Russian policy. In the wake of Prighozhin's abortive 2023 coup against the Kremlin, however, Russian authorities have taken major steps to rein in Wagner and other previously-independent paramilitary outfits. As a result, the rebranded Wagner is now a much more directly controlled appendage of Russian foreign policy, making the Kremlin culpable for its actions in Africa.]