A HELPING HAND FROM THE PRC
Russia is increasing production of its Oreshnik nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles. It is doing so thanks to Chinese components, particularly a computer numerical control carousel lathe machine used at the state-owned Votkinsk plant. The lathe is just part of the billions of dollars' worth of other components that China has sent Russia for the production of precision-guided weapons and jets and for testing defense products. China's exports, in turn, have allowed Russia to continue production of highly sophisticated weapons systems without meaningful impediments, despite Western sanctions leveled on it as a result of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. (The Telegraph, January 28, 2026)
RUSSIA'S RARE-EARTHS STRATEGY
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 led to a rupture with Europe, which levied extensive sanctions on the Kremlin in an attempt to raise the costs of its aggression. But recent weeks have seen European nations soften their stance toward Moscow somewhat, with French President Emmanuel Macron going so far as to call for the bloc to restart diplomacy with the Kremlin. If that does happen, a new policy paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations Russia lays out, Moscow could weaponize its resource abundance to shape political outcomes – by playing on Europe’s growing need for rare earth elements.
"At the heart of the strategy is Russia's Angara–Yenisei Valley, a planned $9.2bn Siberian processing hub overseen by Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of the Russian Security Council, former minister of defense and a figure close to Putin," the study warns. "With this project, Russia hopes to raise its global supply share of rare earths from 1.3% today to 10% by 2030."
If it manages to do so, it will gain critical leverage in its relations with Europe. "Europe's appetite for rare earths gives Russia's mineral diplomacy a wedge and is likely to test the bloc's cohesion," the paper warns. Specifically, the Kremlin could exploit two concurrent dynamics – China's extensive control of the world's rare-earth mining and Europe's deepening dependence on those same resources – to change the terms of its interaction with Europe. "Currently, few European firms will invest in Russia without legal and financial cover from national governments," the study assesses. "Russian officials appear to assume that Europe's dependence on China, weak growth prospects and Trump's confrontational posture toward the EU will eventually push European governments to provide such support." (ECFR, January 26, 2026)
A RUSSIAN CONNECTION IN THE EPSTEIN FILES
The sordid activities of deceased financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have been the focus of feverish public speculation for years. Now, newly-released documents from the so-called "Epstein Files" indicate that Epstein – whose illicit activities implicated a broad range of celebrities, politicians and notables over the years – may have acted in part as a Russian agent. 1,056 documents in the latest trove of documents released by the U.S. Justice Department reference Vladimir Putin, and more than 9,000 make reference to Moscow (although there is no indication that Epstein ever met directly with the Russian president). Cumulatively, the documents suggest that Epstein sought to leverage connections in Moscow to procure favors for friends. Some analysts believe that Epstein's recruitment of Russian escorts for the rich and powerful may have been a "kompromat" operation in which he lured influential people into sexual encounters with Russian women to record the encounters for blackmail. (The Telegraph, February 1, 2026)
RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM LOOKS NORTH
Vladimir Putin's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine is being propelled by a persistent imperialist impulse, as official statements by the Russian president and his closest advisors make clear. But Russia's neo-imperial ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine – to places like the Faroe Islands, which are administered by Denmark, and Norway's Svalbard Peninsula. And there are signs that the Kremlin could be laying the intellectual case for a move on both territories.
"Over the last several years, Russian analysts and commentators have talked about islands in the Baltic Sea – Gotland, the Aaland Island and Bornholm – and in particular two archipelagos in the North Atlantic – Denmark's Faroes and Norway's Svalbard as possible targets of future Russian moves against the West," writes Paul Goble in his Window on Eurasia blog. "This past week, Moscow commentators have devoted more attention to these two archipelagos, a possible indication that the Kremlin is considering moves against one or both and is laying the groundwork with arguments Russia would likely use in the hopes of dividing the West in such a case." Those arguments, articulated in recent articles published by the Strategic Culture Foundation and on the Military-Political Analytics portal, vary, but their thrust is the same: positioning Russia as the defender of the existing status quo – a status quo that it might need to defend by greater presence or control. (Window on Eurasia, February 1, 2026)
[EDITORS' NOTE: For a detailed description of Russia's new imperialist drive, as well as the territories it covets, see AFPC President Herman Pirchner and Senior Vice President Ilan Berman's new book, The New Imperialists: How China, Russia and Iran are Trying to Remake the World, out now from AFPC Press.]