IS RUSSIA SENDING MILITARY SUPPLIES TO CUBA?
A Russian cargo plane that previously delivered Pantsir-S1 short-range and Buk-M2E medium-range air defense systems to Venezuela landed at a military airfield near Havana, Cuba, on February 1st. The Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft is operated by the Russian government-affiliated airline Aviacon Zitotrans and can transport up to 50 tons of cargo. Russia has previously delivered small arms, military supplies, and mercenaries using Il-76 aircraft, and Aviacon Zitotrans is known to have transported military cargo on behalf of the Russian government. The Il-76's flight path to Cuba, including stops along the way in northern Africa, is similar to the aircraft's earlier flight to Venezuela. Russia and Cuba signed a military cooperation agreement back in March 2025 establishing a framework for joint military operations, training exercises, military specialist exchanges, and the supply of military equipment. (Defense News, February 2, 2026)
RUSSIANS PLAN FOR AUSTERITY
As the Kremlin spends millions daily on its war with Ukraine, ordinary Russians are feeling the cost of the conflict like never before. Quality goods or even simple pleasures are no longer a possibility for most families. Gone are the days of going out to eat, buying coffee, or even sweets from a store. Prices for staples such as bread, vegetables, and dairy products have skyrocketed, leading many to try to cut out items they could afford just a year or two ago. Increasingly, ordinary Russians say, conditions are reminiscent of life right after the fall of the Soviet Union – and matters are only getting worse. With no end to the conflict in sight, desperation, anger, and fatigue are rising across the country. (Meduza, February 2, 2026)
RUSSIA'S OIL REVENUE PLUMMETS
Over the past four years of conflict, the Kremlin has relied on oil revenue to sustain its war machine and the conflict’s growing costs. Those costs, however, are now becoming more than Moscow can handle. As the New York Times reports, the costs of the war has now reached more than $170 billion annually, leaving the Russian economy in a critical state. The Russian government is increasingly unable to subsidize war costs, forcing its citizens to shoulder the burden. This problem has been made dramatically worse by global energy conditions; current oversaturation of the market has led Russia's oil revenue to plummet – dropping from $57 a barrel in August to just $39 per barrel this past December. Whether this reversal of economic fortune is enough to alter the Kremlin's strategic calculus, however, remains an open question. (New York Times, January 31, 2026)
A COMING RUSSIAN CRIMINAL WAVE?
Over the past four years, discontent with official policy (or simply efforts to avoid conscription in the Ukraine war) have propelled tens of thousands of Russians into Europe. Up until now, that phenomenon has been a natural outgrowth of the conflict in Ukraine. However, European leaders are now warning that the Kremlin intends to employ a form of weaponized migration as part of its hybrid warfare tactics against the continent. Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsakhna has outlined for London's Telegraph newspaper what he terms a "very, very sudden security risk for Europe." "We have close to one million combatants in Russia right now," Tsahkna recently told the British paper. "Russia and Putin are already using different people to commit attacks on our societies, but when there will be peace, we can imagine that we will have hundreds of thousands of ex-combatants coming to Europe."
These worries derive from Russia's mass mobilization of criminals and convicts into its armed forces – a trend that has had a pronounced impact on the brutality of the Russian military while these individuals are in combat, and has led to a spike in domestic crime in Russia following their return from the front. The same trend, Tsankhna warns, is now facing Europe, because these war-hardened criminals "are perfect for this mission [destabilizing Europe]."" In response, the Estonian foreign minister has proposed a ban on entry into the European Union's Schengen zone for former Russian soldiers, as well as prohibitions on work visas and residence permits for them. (The Telegraph, February 1, 2026)
EUROPE ISN'T READY FOR A RUSSIAN INCURSION
The transformation of Russia's economy over the past four years of war into one overwhelmingly focused on military production and modernization has left European leaders increasingly concerned that the Kremlin's strategic ambitions don't stop at the conquest of Ukraine. But, the Wall Street Journal reports, a recent wargame exercised by Germany's Die Welt newspaper and the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces has demonstrated that the continent is far from ready to repel a further Russian attack. The wargame predicted that, in a scenario in which Moscow used the pretext of providing humanitarian aid to the enclave of Kaliningrad, the Kremlin would be able to invade NATO territory.
The scenario highlighted how Russia's "hybrid war" approach can frustrate alliance cohesion. In it, Germany was indecisive and did not intervene. Poland mobilized but did not send troops across the border. The United States, meanwhile, didn't invoke NATO's collective defense provisions because Russia was ostensibly carrying out a humanitarian mission. (Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2026)