The “Golden Era” Gamble: Why U.S. Support for Viktor Orbán Is a 2026 High-Stakes Risk
“We are entering this golden era of relations between our countries,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio gushed this week while meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, “and not simply because the alignment of our people, but because of the relationship that you have with the president of the United States.”
Indeed. Rubio’s lavish praise came just days after President Trump endorsed the long-time Eastern European strongman who, polls show, is lagging in his re-election bid behind former colleague Peter Magyar.
Trump isn’t the first president to take sides in a foreign election. Bill Clinton sought (though mostly unsuccessfully) to grease international financial aid to Russia while President Boris Yeltsin ran for re-election in 1996, while Barack Obama’s State Department funded a nonprofit that later (and quite predictably) sought to unseat Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2015.
Trump, however, has taken what was an episodic presidential activity and made it a routine exercise. In just the last few months, in addition to Orban, he’s endorsed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Argentinian President Javier Milei, and Honduran President Nasry Asfura in their respective electoral bids.
Presidential endorsements in foreign elections are problematic for at least two reasons. First, as a general matter, such an endorsement runs the considerable risk of roiling America’s relations with the country in question, especially if the endorsed candidate loses. Second, regarding Orban (and others of his ilk), Trump’s endorsement has put the United States on the side of an anti-democratic strongman who’s undercutting U.S. and Western interests in significant ways.
Over the years, of course, the United States has sought to shape the leadership of other countries in far more aggressive ways. In the post-World War II era, we have (among other things) propped up a brutal leader in South Vietnam, and backed questionable ones in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
But, while they’re a milder approach to foreign meddling, presidential endorsements bring their own considerable downsides.
For starters, they can weaken America’s bilateral relations. Strong alliances are built on shared interests and shared values, and they develop over time as nations work with one another on joint challenges.
By issuing endorsements, presidents run the risk of turning our long-term alliances into short-term transactional affairs, making them inherently less stable. Over time, our bilateral ties will center less on shared interests and more on the predispositions of individual leaders. What will happen to U.S.-Hungary relations if, in fact, Magyar beats Orban in April (and the autocratic Orban agrees to relinquish power)?
Moreover, by endorsing a foreign candidate in hopes of swaying a foreign electorate, we’re far less well-positioned to complain when, as part of their shared goal of undermining America’s democracy, Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and other authoritarian regimes meddle in our own presidential elections.
But even if a president decided that the risks of an endorsement are worth the potential upsides, why choose Orban?
America’s biggest long-term global challenge is the burgeoning alliance between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea that seeks to undermine U.S. global leadership and promote an authoritarian alternative to U.S.-led freedom and democracy.
While Hungary is an EU and NATO member, Orban nevertheless has cozied up to Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, questioned “who attacked who” with regard to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, used his EU veto to withhold aid to Ukraine and prevent sanctions against Russia, and calls the EU “a source of imminent danger.” He’s singularly blocking EU membership for Ukraine, and threatening to cut off diesel supplies to the country, which could exacerbate its power crisis.
Orban is also undercutting EU efforts, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion, to reduce its dependence on Russian oil. The EU in 2022 exempted Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic – all highly dependent on Russian crude – from the effort, while directing them to reduce their reliance as soon as possible.
But Hungary has become more dependent than ever, with Russia accounting for 92 percent of its oil imports last year, up from 61 percent before the invasion. And that’s true even though a new report shows Hungary has the capacity to meet its needs through alternative means.
At the same time, Orban has strengthened Hungary’s economic and military ties to China, “aligning its foreign policy with Beijing’s international priorities and repeatedly obstructing EU efforts to counter Chinese influence.” Hungary receives more foreign direct investment from China than any other EU nation, and it’s the only EU or NATO member with a security partnership with the PRC.
Presidential endorsements in foreign elections are a bad idea. They’re especially bad in the case of Viktor Orban.
About the Author:
Lawrence J. Haas is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and the author of, among other books, Harry and Arthur: Truman, Vandenberg, and the Partnership That Created the Free World.