On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran. That effort is now nearly a month old, and the resulting conflict has widened into a regional war that has drawn in Iran's neighbors and wreaked havoc on global energy markets. In the process, Iran has emerged as a critical foreign policy test for the Trump administration. While many aspects of the conflict to date have garnered extensive coverage, some critical developments have not. This special issue of the Iran Democracy Monitor seeks to highlight a number of these trends.
THE REGIME CLAMPS DOWN AT HOME
The current conflict comes on the heels of January's popular uprising within Iran, a domestic upheaval that left as many as 36,000 protesters dead at the hands of regime security forces. President Trump's pledge to the Iranian opposition back then that "help is on the way" has remained top of mind for Iran's clerical regime, which is now working overtime to deter fresh protests and opposition activism that might threaten its grip on power.
In recent weeks, acts of official repression have expanded, with Iranians in multiple cities describing a dramatic increase in security presence, after-dark enforcement operations, and state-backed demonstrations that many say are fostering a climate of fear among the population. Checkpoints staffed by masked security personnel and Basij volunteers, some reportedly as young as teenagers, are now ubiquitous, while vehicles mounted with heavy weapons have been positioned at major intersections in Tehran and other cities.
Additionally, nightly pro-government rallies have become a fixture across Iranian cities. These demonstrations feature vehicle convoys, loudspeakers broadcasting slogans, and armed escorts moving through residential neighborhoods well into the early morning hours. The regime crackdown has extended into the digital sphere as well. Iranian authorities recently arrested 466 people in a single sweep for online activity allegedly aimed at destabilizing the state – one of the largest such operations since the start of the conflict. According to Iranian media, more than 1,000 such arrests have been made in the past month alone, with authorities targeting individuals accused of filming sensitive locations, spreading anti-government content, or what they characterize as cooperating with enemy networks. (Reuters, March 24, 2026; Iran International, March 25, 2026)
ISRAEL SEEKS TO PREVENT RUSSIAN RESUPPLY...
Over the past three decades, the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia has flourished, driven by a shared interest in undermining the Western-led order and by practical cooperation on issues like nuclear development. With the start of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, those ties have grown deeper still, as Iran has become a major supplier of drone technology to the Kremlin. Now that Iran itself is under threat, worries have proliferated that Russia could in turn render critical assistance to the Islamic Republic that would expand its capability vis-à-vis both Washington and Jerusalem.
That possibility is clearly on the minds of Israeli strategic planners. Last week, Israeli airstrikes in the Caspian port city of Bandar Anzali destroyed a significant portion of Iran's naval presence there, including a corvette, missile boats, and supporting infrastructure. But, according to the Wall Street Journal, the strikes had a secondary purpose as well: to disrupt a sanctions-busting shipping network jointly operated by Tehran and Moscow. The route has functioned as a two-way channel, with weapons flowing to Russia for use in Ukraine and food and goods moving back in the other direction. Iran's transfers along this corridor have been substantial, with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and millions of rounds of ammunition reportedly moving through it in 2023 alone. While Israel has not publicly addressed the anti-Russia dimension of the strikes, there is clearly a concern in Jerusalem over the potential for the Islamic Republic's strategic partnership with Moscow to provide it with added resilience or offensive capabilities. (Times of Israel, March 25, 2026)
...AS WARY NEIGHBORS TAKE SIDES
Meanwhile, the conflict has increasingly forced a reckoning across the Gulf, where what began as a strong regional preference for diplomacy has given way to a more sober assessment of what coexistence with a hostile Iranian regime might actually mean in practice. Attacks on critical infrastructure in multiple Gulf states, including energy terminals, refineries, desalination plants, and airports, have made those costs impossible to ignore.
The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council had hoped the conflict would remain contained. Instead, they have absorbed the brunt of Iran's retaliation, accelerating long-running conversations about building a more unified regional defense architecture. In recent weeks, Gulf officials have discussed joint command structures, shared early-warning systems, and integrated missile defense capabilities, with some analysts describing the vision as a potential Gulf NATO. Political obstacles remain, however, with at least one member state reluctant to formally designate Iran as an enemy and Oman maintaining a distinctly anti-war stance. Gulf states are also signaling a desire to deepen their ties with Washington, even as frustration has grown over what some officials describe as major decisions being made without meaningful consultation with regional partners. (France24, March 25, 2026; The National, March 25, 2026)