American Foreign Policy Council

Russia Policy Monitor No. 2725

April 21, 2026 Lydia Sawatsky, Anna Harvey, Ilan I. Berman
Related Categories: Economic Sanctions; International Economics and Trade; Warfare; Corruption; Russia; Ukraine

ANTI-CORRUPTION JUSTICE INCHES FORWARD
Earlier this month, a Russian court sentenced Pavel Popov, a retired general who previously served as deputy defense minister, to 19 years in prison for his involvement in a corruption scandal. Popov was arrested two years ago, and is one of at least four former military officials implicated in the case, which involved graft at a military theme park in the Moscow region called "Patriot Park." Popov was accused by prosecutors of "siphoning budget funds meant for the park and forcing contractors to build a private home and a bathhouse, among other things," reports Radio Free Europe. "He was also accused of receiving millions of rubles in bribes from head of Bamstroyput, the construction company involved in the Patriot Park project."

Popov and the other military officials accused of wrongdoing in the "Patriot Park" affair worked under former Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, who was ousted as in May of 2024. Shoigu, however, remains a key player in the Russian government. He currently serves as head of the Kremlin's powerful Security Council. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 10, 2026)

MORE RUSSIAN COVERT ACTION THWARTED IN KYIV
Last month, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies reportedly uncovered a network of Russian military intelligence personnel operating in Kyiv. According to Ukraine's national police and its Prosecutor General's Office, the operatives were planning to assassinate commanders in the Ukrainian military, as well as prominent public figures. Ukrainian law enforcement arrested four members of the network, but the primary organizers of the group are suspected to be operating from inside Russia. (Ukrainska Pravda, March 31, 2026)

RUSSIA EXPANDS HIV TESTING
Russian Minister of Health Mikhail Murashko recently advised that every third person in Russia should be tested for HIV, due to an ongoing increase in the number of HIV positive people in the country. Rospotrebnadzor, the state health monitor, claims that more than 54 million people were tested for HIV in 2024. This represents around 37% of the population, and the highest percentage in at least a decade. Vadim Pokrovsky, the head of the Federal Scientific and Methodological Center for AIDS Prevention and Control, says that the number of Russians with HIV increased by 35,000 in 2025, to reach 1.25 million. He goes on to say that many citizens who are HIV-positive are not registered in the medical system, making the true number of cases suspected to be much higher. (The Moscow Times, April 18, 2026)

RUSSIA PROFFERS NUCLEAR ASSISTANCE... ON IRAN
For years, Russia has served as a strategic partner of the Iranian regime, and in recent weeks has provided the Islamic Republic with critical intelligence to help it battle back against the U.S. and Israel. However, none of that has stopped Moscow from attempting to get involved in the current standoff between Washington and Tehran, ostensibly in order to break a key impasse. The Kremlin has reportedly offered to take possession of the remaining 440 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium still in Iran's possession — control over which is a sticking point in the current negotiations taking place in Islamabad. But, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted, "unfortunately" the United States has rejected the proposal. (Reuters, April 15, 2026)

RUSSIA IS STILL IN DIRE ECONOMIC STRAITS
Despite an array of predictions that Russia's economy would be bolstered by rising oil prices as a result of the war with Iran, the country’s economic fortunes have continued to decline — and the prospects for a national recovery are grim. According to Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service, for Russia to recover, the price of oil will need to stay above $100 a barrel for a year to close its budget deficit, and for far longer to fix larger, macro-economic issues.

Swedish intelligence asserts that Russia was misreporting data to show a more resilient economy in order to mislead Ukraine-aligned countries. For example, the Russian central bank has been underestimating inflation, which is believed to be closer to the 15 percent key interest rate than the reported 5.86 percent. Moreover, the Swedish intelligence czar believes, Putin himself might not fully understand the severity of the situation. According to him, Russia is "living on borrowed time." "The Russian economy can only enter one of two scenarios: long-term decline or shock. Either way, they will continue on a downslope to a financial disaster." (Financial Times, April 20, 2026)

© 2026 - American Foreign Policy Council