MOSCOW EYES OPEC AFTER THE UAE
The United Arab Emirates made waves in late April when it announced that it was leaving OPEC+. The announcement represented unwelcome news in many quarters. Russia, the bloc's second-largest producer, claimed that the UAE had not previously notified it of this decision. The Russian Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, asserted that Moscow plans to remain in the oil bloc, as it hopes doing so will minimize fluctuations and stabilize markets. He went on to say that the UAE's plan to withdraw could lead to countries heavily increasing their oil production, which in turn would lower global prices. Siluanov claims that the prices are being sustained by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but after reopening, the oversupply could significantly bring down the cost of oil. (Reuters, April 29, 2026)
[EDITORS' NOTE: Left unspoken by Siluanov is that the current Hormuz crisis has benefited the Kremlin significantly by raising global prices and allowing more money to flow into Russia's increasingly depleted coffers. As such, both Abu Dhabi's exit from OPEC and moves toward a resolution of the current conflict with Iran are against Moscow's interests.]
PUTIN RETREATS TO THE BUNKER
Sources close to Russian President Vladimir Putin have claimed that he has grown increasingly paranoid in recent weeks, leading to heightened personal security as well as hiding in underground bunkers as his approval ratings fall to the lowest they have been in years. The Financial Times has reported that the President has likewise set extreme security measures for his household staff and security, forcing them to stop using either public transportation or internet-connected devices. Russian state media outlets are now reportedly broadcasting pre-recorded videos showing Putin participating in regular activities and state functions. The President has also allegedly been overlooking most of Russia's domestic issues by focusing on "micromanaging" the Ukraine war. (TPV World, May 4, 2026)
MOSCOW FUELS POST-ASSAD SYRIA
According to Reuters, Russia has become Syria's main oil supplier, with its oil shipments to the Middle Eastern state this year going up by 75%, to about 60,000 barrels per day. This energy dependency has developed despite the new Syrian government's growing pro-Western shift as well as its distrust of Moscow, which long supported the country's former leader, Bashar al-Assad. But Syria's options for oil are limited, since its domestic production has fallen significantly below demand – a state of affairs that has led it to become increasingly reliant on Moscow.
Still, the Syrian government is actively looking for alternative suppliers, something that could end up impacting Russia's current energy dominant position in the country. Moreover, the Trump administration's growing ties to Syria's new government has provided Washington with considerable leverage. According to Syrian economist Karam Shaar, "If the United States were to fail to reach an agreement or settlement with Russia regarding Ukraine, it wouldn't be a surprise if it told Syria overnight to stop buying these oil shipments." Moreover, Shaar notes, Syria is well aware of how its partnership with Russia could expose it to Western sanctions, making the country even more determined to diversify its oil imports. (Reuters, May 1, 2026)
RUSSIA'S MIGRANT RECRUITMENT PIPELINE
According to a new report by the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), Truth Hounds, and the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights, Russia's heavy manpower losses in Ukraine have led it to launch a large-scale campaign preying on men from countries with vulnerable economic positions across Central and South Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Russia, the report claims, has recruited at least 27,000 foreign nationals since February 2022. Moreover, it projects that another 18,500 foreign nationals might be recruited by the Kremlin this year.
Moreover, the report lays out, while some recruits knew what they were being recruited for, many were deceived into signing contracts through abuse, document confiscation, and false criminal charges. And once they join the ranks of the Russian military, the foreign conscripts are usually placed in the most dangerous positions on the frontline; at least 3,388 foreign fighters have reportedly been killed, meaning one in five recruits may not survive deployment in Russia's war of choice. (Fox News, April 29, 2026)