MORE MILITARY GROWTH
Amid mounting difficulties on the Ukraine front and intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory, the Kremlin is moving to beef up its military ranks further. TASS reports that a recent order by President Vladimir Putin has officially expanded the size of the military, increasing the number of active-duty service members to 1,510,000 – an increase of some 7,500 personnel over numbers floated this spring. That order brings the total number of Russian men under arms to 2.4 million. (TASS, June 12, 2026)
A HELPING HAND FOR THE TALIBAN...
The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up its engagement with Afghanistan's Islamist Taliban regime, Afghanistan International reports. Specifically, the Kremlin is said to be lending a helping hand to the Taliban's efforts to transform its militias and fighters – who remain loosely organized – into a regular standing army. Last month, the Taliban's Defense Minister, Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, signed a "military-technical" cooperation agreement in Moscow, under which Russia will refurbish Soviet-era military equipment still in Afghanistan for use by Taliban forces.
Moscow's assistance to Kabul, however, promises to be broader than simply military training. The May agreement signed between the two countries is said to cover five distinct areas of cooperation: namely, "troop training, technical support for weapons, intelligence cooperation, operations against armed groups Russia considers a threat, and logistical cooperation." (Afghanistan International, June 26, 2026)
...AUGURS GROWING INFLUENCE FOR MOSCOW
The expanding cooperation between Russia and the Taliban reflects a clear set of calculations on Moscow's part. "First, Moscow naively believes that closer cooperation with the Taliban can serve as a counterweight to other terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP)," Hudson Institute scholar Luke Coffey lays out in a new report. "Second, after the Biden administration's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Moscow saw an opportunity to compound Washington's political and reputational damage: by engaging with Kabul at the expense of Western influence, it could undermine US interests. Finally, just as the Taliban is seeking legitimacy outside Afghanistan, Russia is seeking greater legitimacy outside Europe. The Kremlin's closer ties with the Taliban government are consistent with its deeper relationships with China, North Korea, and Iran following Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022." (Hudson Institute, June 26, 2026)
CRIMEA IN THE CROSSHAIRS...
Ukraine's campaign of long-range strikes of recent weeks is making Russia's position in Crimea increasingly precarious. On June 26th, authorities on the Peninsula – which Russia unilaterally annexed after a stage-managed referendum back in 2014 – were forced to declare a state of emergency after days of Ukrainian drone attacks blacked out part of the territory as parts of the regional power grid were knocked offline. Ukrainian attacks have led to deteriorating conditions in Crimea, including fuel shortages and interruptions in public transportation. Restrictions have also been imposed on the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to Russian territory; according to regional officials, there is now a backlog of thousands of vehicles waiting to cross the bridge, with transit imperiled by periodic Ukrainian drone strikes. (The Moscow Times, June 26, 2026)
...AS RUSSIA RETHINKS BASING
This growing pressure, in turn, appears to be forcing the Russian military to rethink its position on the peninsula. According to ATESH, an "underground resistance movement," Russian military authorities are moving command of Russia's Black Sea Fleet from the Crimean port of Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, Russia. The move, ATESH claims, is due to intensifying Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets. "According to informants among military personnel, some officers are already dealing with the practical aspects of the move without waiting for official orders: relocating their families, getting rid of property they will not be able to take with them and settling in Novorossiysk," the partisan group has said. "Morale among the fleet's leadership is low – those who truly understand what is happening prefer not to delay." (Ukrainskaya Pravda, June 14, 2026)