DUMA ELECTIONS AS POLITICAL FOOTBALL
Currently, elections for Russia's lower chamber of parliament, the State Duma, are slated to take place this September. Increasingly, however, Russian security officials have begun to argue that the elections should be postponed – something that would effectively mean their cancellation. The calls come against the backdrop of a growing wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other Russian cities, a development that has contributed to a slide in the popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Worrisome, too, is a decline in popularity on the part of the ruling "United Russia" party, which is now said to be polling at just 35% approval. Figures like Viktor Zolotov, head of the Rosgvardia, Russia's national guard and the President's personal protection, is a leading figure now arguing for postponement.
The proposal, however, is not without its detractors. For instance, both Sergey Kiriyenko and Alexey Gromov, who serve as deputy Kremlin chiefs of staff, are said to oppose such a move, fearful that postponing the Duma elections will (among other things) blunt the effectiveness of Russia's criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's decision to defer elections in his country. Meanwhile, former President Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of Russia's powerful National Security Council, opposes the delay for a different reason: "the fall campaign is a path to heading the United Russia list... and, with it, a claim on the Duma speaker's chair." (Meduza, June 24, 2026)
THE SHORT LIFE EXPECTANCY OF RUSSIAN RECRUITS
New Russian recruits are dying within 20 to 35 minutes of entering frontline combat in Ukraine. Soldiers are living just 10 days to three weeks from their arrival at training grounds to their deaths in combat, reports historian Peter Frankopan, citing Russian military blogger chatter. Those military bloggers report that Russia is still recruiting between 800 and 1,000 voluntary contract soldiers per day, but average monthly casualties now exceed 30,000, with Russia suffering roughly eight casualties for every one Ukrainian lost. The high casualty rate is largely due to Ukraine's heavy use of military drones along the front line, creating a deadly gray zone where it is nearly impossible to advance. Russia continues to offer incredibly high sign-up bonuses (up to $80,000), as well as debt relief, to encourage volunteers. (New York Post, June 28, 2026)
A WARNING FROM WARSAW
As the threat from Moscow grows, Poland sees armed conflict with Russia as a "near-term prospect," the head of the country's foreign intelligence agency has said. In a recent interview with the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, Paweł Szota, head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency (AW), laid out that Poland has been the target of extensive Russian cyberattacks, as well as sabotage and disinformation campaigns, but there is now a high risk of direct military confrontation as well.
Szota said that the AW's assessments are consistent with those of other NATO and allied intelligence services, and analysts believe that the likelihood of a wider conflict depends largely on how the war in Ukraine ends. Russia will be able to continue its war in Ukraine for "several more years," AW analysts believe, especially as the Kremlin is increasingly willing to sacrifice economic prosperity and domestic development to support a continuation of the conflict. (TVP World, June 29, 2026)
TARGET: FINLAND
Finland recently announced plans to partner with U.S. defense firm Lockheed Martin to produce multi-launch rocket systems (MLRS) in Tampere, Finland. In response, Russian State Duma member Aleksey Zhuravlyov claimed that Helsinki was attempting to provoke Russia, and that Moscow would respond by increasing its military presence on the Finnish border. The parliamentarian further claimed that Russia had enough military equipment on the Finnish border to blow up half of the country.
The threat is not an idle one. Analysts have assessed that Russia is building up its military presence along its shared borders with the Nordic states and the Baltic countries. (The Kyiv Independent, June 27, 2026)