Development in space is gaining serious momentum. Impressively, NASA recently unveiled plans for a new moon base — the first concrete step toward permanently moving human civilization off Earth. However, as we become an interplanetary species, it is important to protect this multi-year, multi-billion-dollar investment while building a habitable environment. That starts with bolstering the Space Force’s ability to detect and counter asteroid threats to American lunar infrastructure.
This is important because a permanent lunar presence also means a permanent target. During their lunar flyby this Spring, the Artemis 2 crew witnessed and documented six separate meteorite impacts on the lunar surface. In March of 2022, a Chinese Long March 3C rocket crashed on the moon, creating a double crater, and on August 5, 2026 a SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is projected to impact the far side of the moon at 5,500 miles per hour. Those impacts are minor inconveniences compared with what could happen if the lunar surface is impacted by a large asteroid.
The recent case of Asteroid YR4 illustrates the concern. In late December 2024, when NASA scientists discovered YR4, there were initial fears that the nearly 200-foot-wide asteroid could collide with Earth. But as time passed, its orbit instead appeared to be heading toward intersection with the moon. Thankfully, in March, the James Webb telescope confirmed that YR4 would not strike the moon and destroy billions of dollars of infrastructure in geostationary and low Earth orbit. But the “near miss” also offered a stark lesson: The Space Force was not ready to defend the nation’s interests in space, nor was it sufficiently aware of those threats.
This is a serious problem. The prevailing law (known as Title 10) requires that the Space Force “protect the interests of the United States in space.” Those threats include asteroids. A surprising number of guardians, however, are unaware of their statutory and presidentially-specified duties. Every White House since 2016 has had planetary defense strategies assigned to the Department of Defense. For example, the most recent 2023 National Preparedness Strategy & Action Plan For Near-Earth Оbјеct Hazards And Planetary Defense contains 14 presidential taskings for the Pentagon.
Analysis by the scientific community suggested that, if YR4 had struck the trailing edge of the moon, it would throw up 100 million tons of ejecta. Within days, 10 million tons of it would fall directly on Earth. Moreover, as the ejecta fell toward Earth, it would pass through our satellite infrastructure, exposing our satellites (and astronauts) to the equivalent of a decade of exposure in just days — as much as 1,000 times the background micrometeoroid levels. For some perspective, even a tiny grain of sand traveling at hypersonic velocities can destroy a satellite.
Such an event could be catastrophic, threatening vital military communications, missile warning and nuclear command and control satellites in geostationary orbit. In middle Earth orbit, it would threaten GPS (and all dependent services). And in low Earth orbit, the densest region, it would threaten spy satellites, civilian Earth observation satellites and broadband internet such as Starlink, the International Space Station, the Hubble Telescope, new private space stations and even private spaceflight participants. The costs would be measured in lives and in hundreds of billions (potentially trillions) in lost vital infrastructure.
But if the scientific community has a clear understanding of the threat and possible responses, the United States defense community is less attuned to the risk — at least so far. America’s adversaries, by contrast, are responding to the threat. Notably, the Chinese Space Force has already started planning a broad system and begun hiring for its own planetary defense Force, and is planning a kinetic interception test next year.
We would do well to follow suit. Fundamentally, the planetary defense mission offers a vital opportunity for the Space Force to enhance its capabilities and competencies. Congress, meanwhile, has an opportunity to advance the cause by pressuring the Defense Department to ensure the Space Force is fulfilling its statutory duties to protect American interests in space. Once it does, it needs to fully fund and resource the planetary defense mission, because the need is pressing — and potentially transformative.
About the Author: Peter A. Garretson is a Senior Fellow in Defense Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C. where he co-directs the organization’s Space Policy Initiative. He is the co-author of “Scramble for the Skies”, “The Next Space Race”, “Space Shock”, and the recently released “Space Nuclear Weapons Analysis” AFPC Special Report.