"President Putin, thank you so much for having us,” U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff gushed recently in Moscow, where he and fellow U.S. Special Envoy Jared Kushner sought to coax Putin into making peace with Ukraine by offering more economic cooperation and the lifting of sanctions. “When we retire,” Witkoff added, “we’ll have all these incredible stories and memories, and yours will be right at the top of it all.”
Soon thereafter, President Donald Trump pressured Kyiv to stop striking energy sites in Russia because, he said, it’s causing a diesel fuel shortage. But he demanded nothing from Moscow – no end to attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and civilian targets, or to atrocities that include “mass detentions…industrial-scale torture…[and] the largest forced deportation of children since World War II.”
The United States and Europe are fundamentally misreading Putin by stroking his ego, pressuring his adversary in Ukraine, and refusing to respond forcefully to his increasingly reckless provocations – all in hopes of cutting some sort of deal with him, or out of fears of provoking him into more recklessness.
Putin is testing European resolve through “hybrid warfare” that includes cyberattacks, propaganda, sabotage, and a range of military provocations. But, fearing further escalation, European leaders are not responding in kind, and Washington is not encouraging them to do so.
Sensing Western weakness, Putin may significantly boost his hybrid warfare or even send his military across the border of another European nation. At that point, Europe (in whole or in part) may fear Putin’s expansionist designs enough to deploy its militaries to stop him, triggering open war.
To prevent that chain of events, Washington and Europe should act now to confront Putin with more forceful measures, make clear the consequences of crossing certain red lines, and prepare to follow through.
Neither U.S. flattery and economic incentives, nor a U.S. tilt toward Moscow and against Kyiv, will likely convince Putin to make peace. The Russian strongman has said “all of Ukraine is ours” and Ukraine is “not even a country,” and he probably views U.S. diplomatic efforts with disdain.
While mocking U.S. peacemaking, Putin is testing Europe with more frequent and more audacious attacks.
Most audaciously, a Russian drone on September 13 struck the engine of a train near Ukraine’s border with Poland in what seemed like a warning to nations supporting Ukraine. The drone landed near another train that was carrying former CIA Director David Petraeus, and the strike came “just minutes” after the departure of another train that was carrying former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other European officials.
Days earlier, a Russian drone forced Moldova to “temporarily ground several flights,” including one that was due to fly Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky from Chisinau to Oslo for the funeral of Norway’s King Harald V.
At the same time, Moscow is sending jets and drones into the airspace of NATO countries, tangling with other militaries above international waters, disrupting GPS and navigation systems across the continent, interfering in foreign elections, and conducting sabotage operations.
In recent days, Copenhagen said a Russian frigate fired at a Danish air force helicopter over the Baltic Sea; Germany accused Russia of an attempted drone attack in the freight terminal of Leipzig/Halle Airport; and Bulgaria began investigating explosions at some of its weapons storage sites.
Not surprisingly, European officials are voicing outrage and vowing resolve. “This is completely unacceptable,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmusson said of Russia’s attack on his nation’s helicopters. The European Parliament planned to adopt a resolution that calls Russia “the gravest hybrid threat facing the [European] Union and its Member States.”
But words alone won’t suffice; European officials are reportedly considering options that include “opening a debate about whether a so-called hybrid attack could trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, more unified communication in response to incidents and a greater push on protecting critical infrastructure.”
Washington and Europe should go much further. Along with hardening energy and communications infrastructure and strengthening cyber defenses, Western nations should boost their weaponry and provide what’s needed not just for Ukraine but for other nations that are most vulnerable to a prospective Russian attack. Because, if Russian behavior is any guide, the costs of not doing so are liable to be far greater.