In Russia, we know elections are stage-managed affairs, with outcomes predetermined well in advance and then triumphantly presented as evidence of pluralism and representative government. That’s especially the case these days, because the Kremlin is at pains to demonstrate that Vladimir Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine—which has cost the country tremendously in both blood and treasure—remains a popular enterprise.
That is why the outcome of Russia’s latest State Duma elections, held from September 18 to 20, was never really in doubt.
Officially, Putin’s ruling United Russia party won nearly 58 percent of the vote, capturing 355 of the 450 seats in the Duma. Russia’s Communist Party came in a distant second at 13.81 percent, followed by the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia—which is anything but—at nearly 9 percent. The New People party took 7.96 percent, and the Just Russia party came in at just over five, barely clearing the legislative threshold needed for representation.
Those results significantly expand United Russia’s already-substantial constitutional majority, giving it even greater power to pass laws and initiate amendments to the constitution without forming coalitions with other parties. The faction has held a parliamentary majority since Russia’s pre-war 2021 elections, but last weekend’s results have now given it the largest parliamentary bloc in its history.
Not that there’s much political competition to begin with. Over the past decade, and especially since February 2022, Putin’s government has systematically dismantled its political opposition, imprisoning or eliminating leading critics, blacklisting institutions geared toward holding the government accountable, and otherwise making meaningful participation in political life increasingly untenable. (A good example is Yabloko, Russia’s only openly anti-war political party, which Russia’s Supreme Court barred from participating in the elections altogether in August.)
The numbers reflect the real scope of the political fix the Kremlin has just orchestrated. For instance, Novaya Gazeta Europe conducted a statistical analysis vetted by independent experts and concluded that “United Russia” may have received only around 34 percent of votes without electoral fraud—far below the commanding lead Putin and his cronies are now touting.
Meanwhile, Russians outside the country have an even dimmer view. EuroNews reports that two independent exit polls of Russians voting at embassies and consulates across 22 countries found an overwhelming rejection of Putin’s preferred political order. One survey placed support for United Russia at as little as 2.8 percent. Another had a slightly higher tally: 5.5 percent.
To be sure, Russian expats are a self-selected group. Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization” of September 2022—designed to drum up manpower for the Kremlin’s “special military operation” against Ukraine—resulted in an exodus that The Washington Post has compared to the emigration wave that followed the 1917 Bolshevik revolution and the one that accompanied the 1991 Soviet collapse.
Those Russians departed for all sorts of reasons, ranging from conscientious objection to Putin’s assault on Ukraine to a more basic desire to avoid conscription into the conflict. Their political preferences, therefore, shouldn’t be taken as representative of what Russians who have remained behind really think.
Even so, the contrast is instructive. It provides a useful reminder that there is a significant constituency of Russians that has a very different vision of their country’s future. Most of them, however, live outside Russia’s borders. The rest, meanwhile, are about to face an even more absolutist, totalitarian Kremlin.
Indeed, the politics of Putin’s war—in which Russia now finds itself on the back foot against a reinvigorated and technologically capable Ukraine—necessitate it. As such, the results of the latest Duma elections may be a bellwether for what Putin needs next: greater mobilization, additional economic sacrifice, and an ever more compliant and passive population.