AN IRANIAN-EMIRATI THAW?
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in New Delhi last month, marking the highest-level meeting between the UAE and Iran since the war began earlier this year. However, key points of contention between Abu Dhabi and Tehran remain, particularly the fallout from Iran's attacks on the UAE, threats to Emirati shipping, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and the UAE's suspension of trade and financial exchanges with Iran in August. A sustained rapprochement would likely require direct communication and better mechanisms to prevent escalation and miscalculation. The partial thaw is understandable, insofar as both sides have an interest in reducing tensions, given the UAE's reliance on secure regional trade and Iran's interest in maintaining access to a major regional commercial and financial hub. (The Arab Weekly, September 14, 2026)
CHINA PRESSURES IRAN TO REIN IN THE HOUTHIS... SORT OF
According to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter, Beijing interceded to ask Tehran to rein in the Houthis after an appeal by Saudi Arabia. The Houthis' recent military campaign has made rapid advances along the Red Sea coast, including around the critical Bab al-Mandaab chokepoint, further threatening global energy flows. China accounted for more than 80% of Iran's seaborne oil exports in 2025, placing Beijing in a unique position to exert pressure on Tehran. However, Chinese officials did not explicitly threaten Iran or indicate that they would use economic pressure if Tehran failed to act. (Reuters, September 18, 2026)
[EDITORS' NOTE: China's entreaties do not appear to have registered in Tehran. In early October, the Houthis carried out a devastating series of strikes on Saudi Arabia, including on the country's main airport, that left scores dead. In spite of this escalation, however, Beijing does not appear willing to use its considerable economic leverage to pressure Iran and stabilize the situation.]
IRAN INCLUDES CHILDREN IN WARTIME CIVILIAN MOBILIZATION
Amid the ongoing conflict with the United States, Iran has expanded its civilian mobilization campaign, Janfada, to include efforts to recruit children under the age of 15. Sasan Zare, a spokesperson for Janfada, said that activities for children under 15 would focus on teaching patriotism, first aid, self-sacrifice, and resistance. He added that formal participation is primarily aimed at adults, with registered participants being over the age of 15 and women trainees being over the age of 18. However, the campaign has faced scrutiny over the involvement of minors, with Amnesty International reporting evidence of children as young as 12 years old participating in checkpoints and patrols, including some carrying rifles. Iran International has received similar accounts of children and teenagers conducting checkpoints and handling weapons at state-sponsored gatherings. Zare denied that the Janfada campaign provides formal weapons training to children, and said decisions about deploying volunteers at checkpoints fall under local police and security authorities. (Iran International, September 20, 2026)
GULF STATES CALL FOR A RESET IN RELATIONS WITH IRAN
Gulf states have called for a reset in relations with Iran, responding to recent hostilities which exposed their vulnerability to Iranian attacks and raised concerns about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. Gulf nations called for better relations and direct talks with Iran about the future of regional stability. Qatar, for instance, has advocated for a regional security framework that would include Iran, while Saudi Arabia has discussed the possibility of a regional non-aggression pact. This shift reflects a growing recognition among Gulf states that they will need to play a greater role in ensuring their own security in lieu of relying on the United States. At the same time, Iran's weakened position as a result of the war may create an opportunity for Gulf states to engage with Tehran and shape a new regional security arrangement, even as they continue to view Iran as a significant threat. (Financial Times, September 21, 2026)
TEHRAN TAKES ITS RETALIATION TO THE UK
Earlier this month, the United States withdrew 12 B-1 Air Force bombers from the RAF Fairford air base air base in southern England due to the threat of a drone attack allegedly ordered by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The attack is suspected to be a multipronged plot to kill American personnel stationed at the base. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said that it is "highly likely" that the plot was directed by the IRGC, but Iran's Foreign Ministry has rejected this accusation, calling it a false-flag operation meant to deflect accountability for Britain's participation in operations against Iran. (New York Times, October 5, 2026; Iran International, October 13, 2026)