WITH POLAND, HOPING FOR THE BEST...
As part of its efforts to cement a missile defense deal with Poland, the Bush administration is seeking a boost in military aid for the Eastern European state. According to the Associated Press (May 3), Administration officials have requested some $20 million in supplemental defense aid for Warsaw. The move appears to be part of U.S. efforts to fulfill Polish requests, made over the past several months, that the United States upgrade its air defense architecture to better counter threats from Russia and Belarus as a quid pro quo for Poland's participation in the Bush administration's planned missile defense basing site in Europe.
...BUT PLANNING FOR THE WORST...
Administration officials are not putting all of their eggs in the Polish basket, however. Reuters (May 2) reports that, in light of the extended nature of negotiations with Warsaw on the so-called "third site," the White House has begun thinking about alternative venues for interceptor basing. Should negotiations with the Polish government break down, "we will pursue alternatives – another option to a location for the interceptor site, simply because we need to deal with the (missile) threat," one anonymous American defense official has confirmed to the news agency.
...AS CONGRESS DIGS IN
The “third site” seems to be running into problems closer to home as well. The Associated Press (May 15) reports that, as part of its deliberations over the new defense authorization bill, the House Armed Services Committee has recommended slashing funds requested by the Administration for the European missile defense project by nearly a third. The suggested cut, proposed by the committee’s Democratic majority, would cut funding for the European effort by some $232 million pending concrete participation in the project by both Poland and the Czech Republic.
REASSURING ISRAEL
As part of its ongoing strategic partnership with Israel, the United States is poised to significantly expand missile defense cooperation with the Jewish state. Tel Aviv’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper, in its May 10th edition, reports that the Bush administration is set to offer Israel an advanced X-band radar system, capable of tracking small objects at a distance of nearly 3,000 miles, during the President’s mid-May trip there. The move, observers say, is a bid by Washington to shore up Israeli defenses against – and lessen Israeli anxiety about – the expanding strategic capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The system, a “parting gift” of sorts from President Bush, “is the best thing to lower tensions between Israel and Iran" because Israel would have greater capability to repel any potential Iranian attack, says Congressman Mark Kirk (R-Il).
THE METHOD BEHIND CHINA’S (MISSILE) MADNESS
As Beijing attempts to burnish its international image ahead of this summer’s Olympic Games, Taiwanese officials are shedding renewed light on China’s growing strategic arsenal – and outlining what they see as the primary reason behind Beijing’s enduring interest in ballistic missiles. The PRC is developing the capability “to strike at American bases and battle carrier groups stationed in the Asia-Pacific... so as to block the United States from coming to the rescue of Taiwan should war break out in the Taiwan Strait," Taiwan’s defence ministry has outlined in a new report cited by the Agence France Presse (May 13). “Although the Chinese communists have claimed they would like to solve the Taiwan issues in a peaceful manner,” the study says, “they have asked their forces to step up preparation for military struggles against Taiwan." And in the event of such a conflict, deterring the United States would be the Chinese government’s top priority: “[I]f it employs military actions against Taiwan, foreign intervention would be its greatest concern, with the United States being the most significant foreign power."
[Editor’s Note: These conclusions track closely with Pentagon assessments. In its latest report to Congress on Chinese military power, released in March, the Department of Defense assessed that “China’s near-term focus on preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, is an important driver of its [military] modernization.”]