IRAN'S ICBM AMBITIONS
Back in February, when Iran carried out a test of its "Kavoshgar" research rocket, officials in Tehran insisted that it was part of the country's "peaceful" space program. But now, satellite photos obtained by the Times of London have raised new concerns that Iran's advances in its efforts to be a space-faring nation could serve as a boon to its expanding strategic arsenal. According to the April 11th edition of the influential British daily, photographs of the February "Kavoshgar" launch revealed a heretofore-unknown missile test site east of Tehran – one where the Iranian regime is believed to also be working on an ICBM. While not a smoking gun, the co-location of the two programs “does reveal the likely future development of Iran's missile programme,” says Geoffrey Forden of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
[Editor's Note: While concrete signs of a synergy between the two programs are still few and far between, there are already indications that Iran's work on an intercontinental ballistic missile capability is progressing quickly. Experts now estimate that Iran is only five years away from being able to field an ICBM - meaning that an Iranian long-range missile could emerge at the same time as, or even before, the Bush administration's planned missile defense basing site in Europe becomes operational.]
GAMING THE IRANIAN THREAT
Amid deepening concerns over Iran's strategic capabilities, defense officials in Israel are stepping up work on responses to the threat posed by the Islamic Republic. Ha'aretz (April 17) reports that the Israeli Defence Ministry has conducted a successful test of the country's Arrow-2 interceptor. The trial, carried out on April 16th, pitted the advanced interceptor against a multiple-warhead "Blue Sparrow" missile in a simulation of an Iranian ballistic missile attack scenario. At the same time, Israel is tightening its missile defense contacts with the United States. "Israel asked the U.S. to connect to its ballistic missile early warning system as part of its efforts to defend itself from missile attacks, first of all from Iran... [and the] US has agreed to the request," a senior Israeli official has told the Agence France Presse (April 14).
TURKEY GETS SERIOUS
After years of on-again, off-again interest, officials in Ankara now appear to be moving decisively toward the acquisition of ballistic missile defenses for their country. Defense News reports in its April 28th issue that the Turkish government is in serious talks with four countries about the procurement of its first ever anti-missile capabilities. "We recently have sent price and availability questions to [Russia, China, the United States and Israel], and are now collecting their responses," Murad Bayar, Turkey's defense procurement czar, has confirmed to the trade weekly. Among the systems currently being vetted for suitability are the U.S. PAC-3 theater missile defense system and its more sophisticated Russian counterpart, the S-400, as well as Israel's advanced Arrow-2 interceptor.
THE CARACAS-MINSK CONNECTION
Russia and the United States are still locked in an acrimonious debate over the deployment of American missile defenses in Europe. Moscow’s most erstwhile international ally, however, has launched a missile defense project of its own. The April 8th Global Security Newswire, citing Russian news agencies, reports that the government of President Alexandr Lukashenko is planning to send military advisors to Venezuela to provide “intellectual” assistance in the construction of a national missile defense system. Under plans announced by the Belarusian military, Minsk will send ten advisors to Caracas this year, to be followed by technical experts as needed.