EASTERN EUROPE EDGES CLOSER
Washington and Warsaw are making progress toward agreement on missile defense cooperation in the wake of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 10th visit to Washington. Following talks with President Bush, Tusk cited progress on a framework for anti-missile cooperation between the two countries – plans for which have been complicated in recent weeks by Poland's request for advanced air defenses as part of the price of its participation in the Bush administration's missile defense efforts.
Officials in Prague also appear to be inching toward a final deal with Washington. Last month, following meetings with President Bush, Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek intimated that his government was close to agreement with the U.S. on the basing of early warning radar on Czech soil. Topolanek's government, however, faces far greater domestic opposition to its plans than does its Polish counterpart. The Kyiv Post (March 17) reports that recent days have seen at least one major rally in the Czech capital against missile cooperation with the U.S. "Most of the public don't agree with the radar," says one opposition protester. Instead, "[t]he people want a referendum as the only means to decide about the radar."
IN RUSSIA, INTRANSIGENCE... AND SIGNS OF PROGRESS?
In turn, progress in negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic has spurred a new round of American diplomatic outreach toward Russia. On March 17th, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice kicked off a two-day mission to Moscow for a new round of missile defense discussions with their Russian counterparts. But, despite early signs of a potential thaw in the Kremlin's attitudes, Reuters (March 18) reports that they found continued resistance to American plans. "The problem remains and consists of the fact that the Americans are not giving up their plans to deploy a missile defense system in eastern Europe," the news agency cites one Russian diplomat as saying.
Nevertheless, some progress may indeed be in the offing. The New York Times (March 18) reports that President Bush recently sent outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin a private letter containing proposals for a new “strategic framework” between the two countries on missile defense, as well as on nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. President Putin, in turn, has endorsed portions of the letter, which he termed “a very serious document.”
CHINA’S STRATEGIC STRIDES
The Pentagon's latest report to Congress on Chinese military power has painted a troubling picture of China's burgeoning strategic arsenal. "China has the most active ballistic missile program in the world," the study, released publicly by the Defense Department on March 3rd, states. This work, according to the report, includes "developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading certain missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses." In particular, the report says, the Chinese military is making major investments in cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missile, with the goal of greater "force projection and anti-access/area denial" capabilities.
Equally notable has been the growing attention paid in Beijing to space control and counterspace capabilities. "China is developing a multi-dimensional program to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by its potential adversaries during times of crisis or conflict," the report says. This includes a growing ability to carry out anti-satellite (ASAT) attacks - as demonstrated by China's January 2007 shoot-down of a defunct weather satellite - and a growing space launch capability that has "direct military application."