American Foreign Policy Council

Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 244

June 18, 2008 Ilan I. Berman
Related Categories: Missile Defense

NEXT STOP, VILNIUS?
With missile defense talks between the United States and Poland still underway after months of wrangling, Pentagon officials have begun to consider the possibility of seeking alternative basing sites in Europe, chief among them the Baltic nation of Lithuania. "We are hopeful that we can soon reach a deal with the Poles, but we have always said that there are other options available to us," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell has told reporters. "There are several other European nations that could host the interceptors, and Lithuania is one of them." Lithuanian officials, for their part, are expressing some measure of interest in the idea of missile defense partnership with the United States. "We are observing the process because the anti-missile defence shield is important for the safety of Europe, the United States and Lithuania,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Juozas Olekas has said in comments carried by the Deutche Press Agentur (June 18).

FEAR AND LOATHING IN DELHI...
In the wake of China’s very public display of anti-satellite warfare capabilities early last year, other powers in Asia are drifting toward greater emphasis on space security. The latest such country is India, which has announced publicly that it plans to expand its national military space program in an effort to shield its satellites and space assets from similar future incidents. India urgently needs “to optimize space applications for military purposes," the June 18th edition of the International Business Times cites General Deepak Kapoor, Chief of the Indian Army, as telling reporters at a recent conference. The principal reason for Delhi’s unease? "[T]he Chinese space program is expanding at an exponentially rapid pace in both offensive and defensive content," Kapoor has explained.

...AND TOKYO
India is not alone. Citing national security reasons, Japan is also moving toward a dramatic overhaul of its strategic posture in space. According to Aviation Daily & Defense Report (June 18), the Japanese government has just approved a new legal framework for its space program. The law, originally passed by Japan’s legislature, the Diet, in late May, significantly expands the uses of space permissible under Japan’s restrictive self-defense constitution, including the deployment of satellites intended for “national security” purposes. The law also authorizes the creation of a new Japanese space agency to be established over the next year under the supervision of the country’s Cabinet.

MORE OF THE SAME FROM MOSCOW AND BEIJING
The inauguration of Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin’s hand-picked successor, as Russia’s president on May 7th has done little to curb the Kremlin’s animus toward U.S. missile defense efforts. Medvedev’s first foreign trip as president was a late-May swing through Beijing, where he held consultations with Chinese President Hu Jintao on a range of strategic issues. The result was a joint statement affirming Sino-Russian cooperation – and opposing American missile defense plans. "The creation of global missile defense systems and their deployment in some regions of the world... does not help to maintain strategic balance and stability and hampers international efforts in arms control and nuclear nonproliferation," London’s Daily Mail (May 23) reports the Medvedev-Hu communiqué as reading.

WASHINGTON WEIGHS INVESTMENT IN “IRON DOME”
The longstanding missile defense ties between Israel and the United States could be on the cusp of another expansion. In its June 9th issue, Defense News reports that the U.S. government is considering a major investment in Israel’s accelerating effort to protect itself from short-range rocket attack. The centerpiece of the potential collaboration, according to the trade paper, is a project known as “Iron Dome,” a radar-guided, multiple-launch interceptor system designed to defeat the short-range Katyusha and Kassam rockets routinely fired into the Jewish state by Hezbollah and Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has made “Iron Dome” a major priority on his watch, and the project is expected to achieve initial operating capability sometime in 2010. U.S. involvement would give the project a major strategic shot in the arm, as well as a serious infusion of cash: the potential American investment in “Iron Dome” is estimated to be in the neighborhood of $200 million, more than half of the projected funds necessary to complete the program.

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