From June 16 through June 29, 2007, AFPC President Herman Pirchner, Jr. led a fact-finding delegation to Siberia to examine the Russo-Sino relationship. The group visited numerous cities along the Russia-China border including Irkutsk, Chita, Blagoveshchensk, Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.
Anyone who has not visited Eastern Siberia or Russia’s Far East in recent years will be struck by the vivid images of economic progress. Stores stocked with goods, once only seen outside of Russia, are now everywhere. Old buildings have been repaired and many new ones built. City centers are surrounded by a growing number of large single family homes recently built by Russia’s new rich. The gradual development of a real middle class is evident everywhere. Hotels, roads, and airports have been significantly upgraded. In the major cities, a Blackberry can receive e-mail from the States. The process that has transformed Moscow over the last 15 years is now in full stride.
However, the biggest change is not physical. It is psychological. Residents have begun to believe in their future. They are more self assured; more confident in their ability to shape their individual destinies and that of their cities and regions. This is especially true of those (particularly the young) whose skills permit them to function in a market economy. And while the confidence of the people is mirrored in the new assertiveness of the government, some significant challenges remain.
A DECLINING SLAVIC POPULATION
Each year roughly 750,000 people die in Russia. The death rate, at 15 per 1000 people, is nearly twice that of the United States (8/1000) while its birth rate stands at 1.3 - far below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 needed to keep a population stable. Coupled with low immigration rates, Russian population has declined by roughly five million since its peak of 148 million in 1992.
This problem is especially severe in areas bordering China. Less than seven million ethnic Russians populate the Far East federal district, and it is widely felt that if the Russian population does not begin to rapidly expand its numbers, Moscow may eventually lose the territory to China.
As a result, new economic programs are encouraging women to have more than one child, hospitals are receiving better equipment, and skilled workers are being recruited from places other than China.
CONTROLLING THE CHINESE POPULATION
When visiting these regions six years ago, there was a serious question regarding Russia’s ability to regulate the flow of Chinese crossing the border to work in Russia. The fear was that an unrestricted border would lead to a Chinese population explosion, relegating ethnic Russians to a minority in regions of their own country, and raising questions about who ultimately controlled the region. Today, the government’s stronger restrictions on Chinese immigrants have stabilized the number of Chinese living and working on Russian soil. It appears, at least in the short term, that Russia has averted a potential crisis.
ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS WITH CHINA
If Russia’s problems with Chinese nationals on its soil have significantly lessened, the reverse is true of ecological problems caused by China’s dumping of raw sewage and industrial and agricultural waste into the Amur River running between Russia and China. Fish are dying or are unsafe for consumption. Swimming in parts of the river is forbidden for health reasons. Additionally, air quality suffers due to Chinese pollution.
ECONOMIC RELATIONS
The Russian border regions have tried to engage China economically, while simultaneously maintaining a level of independence and autonomy from the Chinese economy. For instance, only 38% of Primorsky Krai’s foreign trade is with China -- S. Korea and Japan making up large majority of the difference. Chinese trade, however dominates other regions.
Dramatic changes have occurred in the past six years; even more changes may be expected in the years ahead.