Berman Examines Israel’s Security Environment

Between July 31 and August 6, 2013, AFPC Vice President Ilan Berman traveled to Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, Israel. While there, he met with Israeli officials, statesmen and defense specialists to discuss Israel’s changing security environment, the current state of Israeli foreign policy, and future strategic challenges facing the Jewish state.

On the so-called “Arab Spring,” Ilan found guarded optimism among Israel’s security establishment—a sentiment driven in large part by the late June ouster of Mohammed Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government in neighboring Egypt. Morsi’s removal, and his replacement with a military-oriented caretaker government, had restored a degree of political normalcy, and better security ties, to Israel’s southern border. As a result, Israeli policymakers believe, renewed possibilities for engagement and strategic dialogue with Cairo now exist.

The nuclear program of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains the paramount strategic concern preoccupying policymakers in Jerusalem. Israeli officials are unanimous in their assessment that, despite widening economic sanctions levied by the United States and Europe, Iran’s nuclear development continues to accelerate and mature. As a result, they say, Israel is likely to enter a zone of decision in late 2013 or early 2014 regarding next steps vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic—including, potentially, the use of force to neutralize the Iranian regime’s nuclear program.

The civil war now underway in neighboring Syria likewise remains a primary concern for Israeli policymakers. The two-and-a-half year old Syrian conflict presents two problems for Israel, both of them tactical. The first is the potential for Syria’s disorder to spread, and to penetrate Israel’s northern border. Israel’s second concern revolves around Syria’s arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, which officials in Jerusalem fear could either be used by the regime, disseminated to third parties (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon), or captured by opposition forces. In response to these challenges, Israel has adopted a nuanced, status quo approach to the Syrian “front,” and has in large part remained disengaged from the instability there. (Notably, neither of these concerns have been substantively addressed by the Russian-brokered deal to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons agreed to by Russia and the United States this fall.)