On March 20, Iranians in Iran and in the diaspora commemorated Nowruz, the Persian New Year. Typically, U.S. administrations have used the occasion to practice some soft power diplomacy. In the past, America's Nowruz greetings have taken pains to highlight Iran's proud pre-Islamic heritage, underscore its immense civilizational potential, and draw a distinction between the country's historic greatness and its current repressive clerical regime.
Not this year, however. The congratulatory message from the new Trump White House on March 19 was decidedly pro forma. At a paltry 109 words, the missive didn't include any of the strategic messaging employed by previous administrations, contenting itself with wishes for a "joyous holiday."
That minimalist approach is an alarming signal of what might be to come, as the Trump administration pivots toward engagement with Iran's ayatollahs.
Signs of such a shift are everywhere. True, President Donald Trump has now reinstated his first term policy of "maximum pressure" against the Islamic Republic. But he has also coupled it with an offer of renewed negotiations with Iran's clerical regime. And while that outreach in principle comes with an expiration date, the goalposts of America's approach to Iran appear to be shifting significantly.
Thus, in a recent interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, the president's point-man for Mideast policy, Steve Witkoff, argued in favor of engagement with the Iranian regime in order to clear up "misconceptions" about its nuclear ambitions. As astute observers have noted, that formulation suggests Team Trump is comfortable letting Iran retain a measure of its nuclear potential, and might even consider removing sanctions without a comprehensive dismantling of its atomic effort.
That would be nothing short of a boon to an Iranian regime that is now in serious—perhaps even terminal—decline.
Economically, Iran's clerical leadership has presided over deepening stagnation during its four-and-a-half decades in power. The extent of this "failure to thrive" was underscored back in 2018, when the World Bank estimated Iranians were 30 percent poorer than before the 1979 Revolution. Economic conditions have only worsened since, despite the country's enormous energy wealth.
Politically, the Islamic Republic's very legitimacy is increasingly in doubt. Not long ago, in a major blow to the credibility of Iran's clerical state, regime officials revealed that some two-thirds of the country's roughly 75,000 mosques had been shuttered as a result of declining attendance. More tellingly, a recent survey by the Netherlands-based polling institute GAMAAN found that over 80 percent of Iran's 88.5 million inhabitants now reject the Islamic Republic and seek an altogether different system of government.
Strategically, meanwhile, the Iranian regime is on the back foot. Over the past half-year, its extensive proxy network has been largely dismantled by Israel, which has methodically taken the fight to Iran's main Palestinian ally, Hamas, to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to Iran itself. As a result, the regime now finds itself in its weakest regional position in decades.
For the moment, at least, Iran's ayatollahs are playing coy. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed Trump's overture as "a deception," maintaining that Tehran and Washington don't have anything to talk about. But the adverse conditions above suggest Iran's leaders may decide to make a deal with the United States after all, and likely sooner rather than later.
If they do, the Trump administration could find itself throwing a lifeline to a failing, deeply unpopular regime desperate to preserve its hold on power. And, more likely than not, any such deal would disadvantage the very constituency that Washington should be engaging instead—the people of Iran.
Once upon a time, Team Trump understood all this. "The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years," President Donald Trump tweeted in January 2018. "They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!"
Returning to those priorities would make for a much more encouraging Iran policy—for the Iranians themselves, and for everyone else.
