In July, President Barack Obama said that he hoped the proposed nuclear deal with Iran could lead to continued conversations with the Islamic regime "that incentivize them to behave differently in the region, to be less aggressive, less hostile, more cooperative," and to generally behave in the way nations in the international community are expected to behave. The most optimistic proponents of the deal believe that the process could open the door to more comprehensive detente, empower Iranian moderates and lead to a gradual, peaceful form of regime change - a change of heart, if not of leadership.
Iran's take on this theory: Forget it.
This week, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly rejected any notion that Tehran would change its troubling ways, nuclear pact or no. In a meeting with members of the Islamic Radio andTelevision Union, Khamenei said U.S. leaders "thought this deal - and it is not clear if it will be passed in Iran or in America - will open up Iran to their influence. We blocked this path and will definitely block it in the future. We won't allow American political, economic or cultural influence in Iran."
Negotiations with Iran were tightly restricted from the start. The regime was not interested in discussing any critical issues outside of its nuclear program, and Western negotiators did not push them. Missile proliferation, regime support for terrorism and insurgency, conventional arms trafficking, financial crimes and human rights were left off the table. And though the White House claims that only nuclear-related sanctions will be lifted if the proposed deal goes into force, the list of penalties to be suspended includes sanctions that cover every aspect of Iran's troubling behavior. The Islamic regime will have no incentive to transform when it is being rewarded for sticking to its program. Leading New York Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer noted this problem when he announced his opposition to the proposal, saying "the very real risk that Iran will not moderate and will, instead, use the agreement to pursue its nefarious goals is too great."
The multi-billion dollar no-strings-attached "signing bonus" will allow Iran to supercharge every aspect of its dangerous behavior. Last week, the Daily Beast published a letter from more than 50 Iranian human rights activists arguing forcefully against the proposed deal. "This deal will provide up to $150 billion windfall of cash into the bank account of our tyrants and theocrats," they stated. "This money will not be spent on the Iranian people but rather to enrich a repressive regime." Empowering the current regime will not lead to the hoped-for moderation, but will "distance the likelihood of positive change and undercut the hopes of the Iranian people."
The dissidents believe that the regime poses a threat to humanity "regardless of how many centrifuges spin in Iran." The fundamental problem has been in a process that does not hold Tehran to account for its many infamous activities. This act of "appeasing the Iranian regime," they argue, "will lead to a more dangerous world." The human rights activists say they "are sounding the alarm bells before it is too late."
However the Islamic Republic's sympathizers are already pushing ahead. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Moscow this week to discuss a variety of ways Russia and Iran could cooperate in a prospective post-nuclear deal world. Lavrov foresees "all the opportunities today to bring Russian-Iranian relations to a new, more advanced level in the spirit of the agreements reached by the two presidents and taking into account those decisions that were made to resolve the situation around the Iranian nuclear program." This includes not only substantial cooperation on Iran's nuclear program but also deepening Russo-Iranian combined conventional military capabilities. Last week, naval assets from the two countries held a series of war drills near the Iranian port city of Anzali on the Caspian Sea. Iran has announced a plan to send a flotilla to the Russia's southern port of Astrakhan for more training.
Most troubling has been the reported Moscow visit of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force. Soleimani is currently subject to a United Nations travel ban, which Russia apparently refused to enforce. Soleimani allegedly met withhigh level Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, to discuss the delivery of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles and other weapons that will be available to Iran once the conventional arms embargo is lifted under the terms of the nuclear deal.
Hopes that Iran will moderate its behavior are clearly ill-founded. The Islamic regime is energized and feeding off the momentum of what it considers a diplomatic victory over the United States. By failing to insist on linkage to issues beyond the nuclear realm, the West has essentially legitimized and empowered - and may soon underwrite - Iran's continued expansion of power and influence abroad, and repression at home. This fatal flaw in the diplomatic effort with Tehran goes beyond thewell documented defects in the proposed deal itself, which is unlikely to halt or even slow Iran's march to nuclear capability. The entire effort amounts to a dangerous reminder that hope is not a method.
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