Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 14 announcement of a partial withdrawal of forces from Syria predictably surprised the Obama administration, which is habitually surprised by the current occupant of the Kremlin. In doing so, it became part of a larger pattern. Recent Russian-American ties demonstrate all too clearly that President Barack Obama still fails to grasp what it is, exactly, that Russia wants - and why it is successfully achieving these objectives despite the country's growing domestic crises.
First off, and contrary to the conventional wisdom on the subject, Putin's announcement hardly signifies a Russian exit from Syria's civil war. In fact, Russian air support provided crucial cover to Syrian regime forces in their recent, successful bid to retake the city of Palmyra from the Islamic State group. Moreover, Russia's remaining forces in Syria can now occupy naval and air bases in perpetuity and are busily building an anti-access and area defense naval, ground and air capability to deny NATO and the U.S. options to project military power into Syria or the Eastern Mediterranean. Those forces also comprise part of Russia's permanently deployed Mediterranean Squadron in the Middle East - a force that now has access to Cypriot and Syrian ports and bases.
At the same time, Moscow is capitalizing on Washington's flagging alliance structure in the Middle East, which has been systematically weakened by administration policies. In just one trenchant example, while Putin's announced withdrawal surprised Washington, Jordan had known about it since January. Yet Jordan never told the U.S. or anyone else, clearly signifying its distrust of American policy in the Middle East.
Russia has also built what is apparently a durable coalition among Iran, Iraq and Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime in order to attain its objectives in the Middle East, and has successfully negotiated a deal with Saudi Arabia to freeze energy production in order to raise global energy prices. And despite some strains in its relationship with Tehran, Moscow is moving towards a multi-billion dollar defense deal with the Islamic Republic. The list goes on.
Every one of these moves has been made possible by the toxic brew of failed policies that has characterized the administration's actions in the Middle East and toward Russia. Whereas Obama takes pride in his failure to act decisively against Syria (as he told The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg), that fateful decision left the United States beholden to Russian decisionmaking on the subject - and to Russia's manipulation of the Syrian issue more broadly. The consequences can be seen in the massive, sustained military campaign undertaken by Putin's government, which has claimed scores of lives and generated charges of "war crimes" from human rights watchdogs for its indiscriminate targeting of civilians and protected sites.
Now, Putin is dictating the terms of Syrian peace as well. Just before Putin announced his partial withdrawal, Moscow and Washington negotiated a "cessation of hostilities" to allow humanitarian relief to reach Syria's beleaguered citizens. World leaders have hailed the agreement as a substantive breakthrough to the Syrian impasse. But the reality is very different; the text of the agreement permits Russia to continue bombing raids against a broad range of allegedly terrorist targets, effectively giving the Kremlin carte blanche to continue its military operations directed against all manner of opposition to long-time ally Bashar Assad. In this way, Russia can continue to shape outcomes in Syria, and do so with virtual impunity.
The consequences are predictable. European and Israeli intelligence officials now estimate that the cease-fire will help Syria's dictator to consolidate power and leave his regime stronger than before. Indeed, Assad's recent moves - such as announcing parliamentary elections in April and a continued refusal to negotiate with insurgents - suggest the political process stipulated in the cease-fire agreement will end up being more fiction than reality. For that, Damascus has Moscow to thank.
Washington's response, meanwhile, has been muted at best. While the Pentagon openly questions Russia's fidelity to the cease-fire, the White House has not formally opposed Moscow's actions or questioned its motivations. Obama clearly prefers to embrace the fiction that a real political process is occurring even as Russia makes undeserved and dangerous strategic gains. The result is an Orwellian caricature of true peace - one that benefits Moscow and Assad, but not the U.S. or its allies.
Stephen Blank is senior fellow for Russia at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
Want these sent to your inbox?
Subscribe