With Iran facing the threat of global “snapback sanctions” this Fall over its nuclear program, the United States and its European allies have a golden opportunity to coordinate a campaign of military and economic pressure against a regime that seems increasingly concerned about its grip on power at home.
With its June 21st attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Washington made clear – after years in which Tehran perhaps had grown skeptical – that the longstanding, bipartisan U.S. threat to use force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons was a real one. The U.S. attack followed more than a week of Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear targets and was designed to deliver the “death blow” to the nuclear program.
In the aftermath of the U.S. attack, Tehran has “no plans to hold talks” with Washington, but Iranian officials restarted talks today with officials from the “EU3” (Britain, France, and Germany), which hope to fashion an agreement with Iran to replace the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Therein lies the opportunity for U.S.-European cooperation that could raise the odds for an agreement.
To be sure, U.S.-European relations have grown frosty in recent months, with President Trump imposing tariffs to force new trade deals and eschewing trans-Atlantic consultation before taking significant military and diplomatic action – from the Middle East to the Russia-Ukraine war to points far beyond.
Washington and Europe, however, share the same goal when it comes to Iran: to prevent the world’s most aggressive state sponsor of terrorism, and the region’s most destabilizing force, from developing nuclear weapons. The challenge, and the opportunity occasioned by U.S. military action, seems tailor-made for coordination.
The EU3 are poised to conduct their talks with Tehran from a position of strength for at least two reasons.
First, with Tehran vowing to restart its uranium enrichment activities, putting it back on the path toward weapons-grade enrichment, President Trump has threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear program again “if necessary.”
Tehran has no reason to doubt him, which should help EU3 officials convince their Iranian counterparts to negotiate seriously.
Second, the EU3 are threatening to “snapback” (i.e., reimpose) sanctions on Iran over its nuclear activities before those sanctions, which were lifted under the JCPOA, permanently end in October.
Such a move, which any of the EU3 nations could trigger as a party to the JCPOA, would reimpose “global embargoes on arms, banks and nuclear equipment” – further weakening Iran’s increasingly shaky economy and perhaps riling its restive population enough to threaten the regime’s stability.
Tehran is already concerned about its grip on power. Reeling from Israel’s attacks on its nuclear sites and military leadership, a regime that regularly abuses human rights has launched a further crackdown.
It has, for instance, executed at least half-a-dozen individuals for “collaborating with Israel,” arrested more than 700 others with suspected ties to the Jewish state, and stepped up its monitoring of the Iranian people’s online activities. It also has deployed its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which reports directly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to maintain public order and clamp down on any unrest, especially in the country’s restive ethnic minority areas.
Nevertheless, even in its weakened state, Tehran remains a serious threat to regional and global security.
For starters, the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes seriously damaged but did not destroy all of Iran’s nuclear sites. Nor did those strikes eliminate the uranium that Iran has enriched to near weapons-grade purity. While Tehran might need months if not years to rebuild its nuclear program, it has not suggested that it won’t try.
In addition, the regime seems determined to rebuild its capacity to expand its regional influence and destabilize adversarial governments, either directly or through the terrorist proxies in its “axis of resistance.”
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have resumed their strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Iranian-backed militias have struck oil fields (including two operated by U.S. companies) in Iraq, and Syria’s new government has intercepted Iranian weapons shipments that were bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Moreover, Tehran retains powerful allies in Moscow and Beijing. In recent days, for instance, Iranian diplomats have met with their Russian and Chinese counterparts to discuss how to “prevent” or “mitigate” snapback sanctions, while Iran and Russia have held joint naval drills in the Caspian Sea.
In rebuilding its network and relying on its powerful allies, Tehran will seek to negotiate over its nuclear program “from a position of strength.” By working together, however, Washington and its European allies can retain the upper hand by leveraging the extensive military and economic pressure at their disposal.
About the Author: Lawrence J. Hass
Lawrence J. Haas is a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and the author of, among other books, Harry and Arthur: Truman, Vandenberg, and the Partnership That Created the Free World.
