American and European interests call for secure and sustained economic engagement with resource-rich Central Asia and Caucasus nations to defend against China’s efforts to secure mineral agreements worldwide and build a processing monopoly at home. New leadership and outward engagement are reinvigorating the greater Central Asia region. Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Türkiye harbor ambitious plans to become regional roundabouts connecting the Caspian and Black Sea trade and commerce, complementing the existing Azerbaijani-Georgian corridor.
Georgia’s economy has attracted increased Russian business during the Ukraine war, but it is wary of overt dependency on Moscow. For sustained economic growth and national security, thriving Asia-European trade is needed. On the cusp of economic and political transformation, Central Asia and the Caucasus are anxious to forge a partnership with the transatlantic alliance and interests. The United States and Europe should embrace this historic opportunity and establish a Central Asia-Caucasus-European Economic Corridor (CACE).
Reinvigorating The Silk Road
Since antiquity, the most profitable overland trade route was through Central Asia to Europe. A major portion of the historic Asia-Europe trade routes on land—initially from India and subsequently from China—went south through Persia to Antioch. Still, the northern routes through the Caucasus gained prominence after the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople in 1453.
Central Asia was a conduit for Chinese silk to the West and a major producer of silk and cotton in its own right. The region grew into a central manufacturing hub of fabric and metals, among other products. The famed Damascus steel originates from the unique manufacturing process first recorded in Central Asia. The region dominated the production and conveyance of goods and financial services, including insurance and finance, to facilitate thriving commerce.
The fall of Constantinople in 1453 significantly reduced land-based trade between Europe and Asia. Still, regional trade between Central Asia and Persia and the South Caucasus continued until it further declined in the nineteenth century, when the Russian Empire annexed Georgia and other Caucasus territories.
An Energy Powerhouse
After the discovery of the oil fields in the Caspian Sea near Baku in the nineteenth century, the region became a significant oil supplier and energy conduit for Europe and the wider world. The United States, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, engaged in developing the region’s energy infrastructure and integrating it into the global energy marketplace, in particular, facilitating energy transit between the Trans-Caspian region and the Mediterranean to the collective benefit of the area.
Notably, the Caspian Pipeline connected the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, developed and operated by Chevron, to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Meanwhile, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline connects the Azerbaijan Caspian oilfields to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The Caspian region’s production accounted for about 1 percent of global petroleum production and 3 percent of natural gas, with an overwhelming portion refined in Italy before re-export.
After Italy, Israel is the second largest importer of Azerbaijani oil. The Southern Natural Gas Corridor transports Azeri gas to Europe via Georgia, Türkiye, Greece, Albania, and Italy, accounting for about 4 percent of European natural gas. In addition to oil and gas pipelines, ships and rail networks haul Central Asia crude oil and oil products to Europe. Uzbek cold-weather-resistant diesel fuel—generated from natural gas—is transported on a road-rail-ship network via Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to the Black Sea and beyond to northern European markets.
Beyond Oil And Gas
On December 17, 2022, the leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, and Hungary signed an agreement to construct an undersea power line between Georgia and Romania for transmitting renewable energy from the Azeri wind farms on the Caspian and Georgian hydropower plants. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the project as part of the European Global Gateway initiative and contributed to Europe’s energy diversification.
Central Asia is rich in minerals critical to energy transition and electric vehicles. The regional nations are actively engaged in expanding their export capacity. There is an uptick in regional infrastructure ambitions and investments. Caspian ports—Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan, Aktau and Kuryk in Kazakhstan, and Alat in Azerbaijan—are coordinating to increase shallow water ship traffic across the inland sea. On the Black Sea, Georgia is expanding the Anaklia and Poti ports to receive increased traffic from Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Trans-Caucasus train connections between the Caspian and Black Seas, such as Baku-Poti and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, ferry goods—including minerals, fertilizers, grains, and other agricultural products. The World Bank projects an increase in the annual Trans-Caspian transit of goods from 2.26 to 11 million tons by 2030.
Cargo and passenger air traffic across Central Asia and the Caucasus is steadily growing. A network of airports is emerging for intra-regional trade and tourism with improved connections with Eastern Europe and Gulf states. Improved aviation is projected to unleash the region’s immense untapped tourism potential.
Romania: Europe’s Beachhead For CACE
Romania’s geography, security apparatus, and fast-growing energy and logistics capabilities make it the optimal beachhead for stronger European economic engagement with the Caucasus and Central Asia. Romania boasts the largest EU and NATO coastline on the Black Sea. The Danube, Europe’s longest river, flows into the Black Sea on the Romanian coast. The Danube Transport Corridor, through the Rhine-Main-Danube and Rhine-Amsterdam canal networks, connects Constanta, Romania, to Rotterdam, Netherlands. With greater attention and investments, Constanta-Rotterdam riverine transport promises to transform eastern and central Europe.
Romania is poised to become a major energy provider in southeastern Europe, contributing to the region’s energy independence. It is projected to become the EU’s largest natural gas producer by 2027. Additionally, it is aggressively modernizing its aging nuclear power plants in close cooperation with the United States, Italy, and Canada. Romania is also the frontline European nation working with the United States to deploy small modular reactors while expanding offshore wind farms in the Black Sea.
Romania is also modernizing its Black Sea infrastructure and logistics capabilities by expanding port facilities at Constanta and Sulina. Romanian Grampet Group and Kazakh Railways’ subsidiary KTZ Express are working together to improve rail links to the ports. Romanian ports already play a critical role in exporting Ukrainian grains—from 300,000 tons per month in March 2022 to almost 3 million tons per month in October 2023—and are set to play an even more significant role in future Ukrainian reconstruction. As a result, Romania is in a unique position to both increase European economic ties with the Caucasus and Central Asia and include Ukraine in these efforts at the right time.
Europe’s Twin Pillars: CACE And IMEC
Global Gateway is Europe’s premier initiative in establishing trusted digital energy transport connectivity with its neighbors and worldwide. Greater economic connectivity with South Asia and Central Asia holds the highest promise for its investments. At the 2023 G-20 Summit in Delhi, the EU, with the United States, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, and Italy, announced the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). It is prudent and timely for Europe to advance a strategic geographic corollary to IMEC by launching a Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe Economic Corridor (CACE).
Both IMEC and CACE represent strategic initiatives emanating from the central and eastern European region hemmed by the Adriatic, Baltic, and Black Seas to reinvigorate historic economic partnerships to collective benefits. The upcoming 2025 Three Seas Summit in Poland offers an intriguing opportunity to put European economic corridors to India-Middle East and Caucasus-Central Asia at center stage.
A Free And Open Black Sea
A free and open Black Sea is necessary for securing trusted European economic engagement with the Caucasus and Central Asia. Littoral states to the Black and Caspian Seas committed to the CACE’s success may consider inking individual or collective compacts to preserve the twin seas’ free and open character and seek strength from collective effort to achieve their objective.
The U.S. Black Sea Strategy states that the Black Sea region is important for NATO and Euro-Atlantic security because it connects Europe to the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East. This is especially true in light of Russia’s aggression, its effects on energy and food security, and Its efforts to expand its anti-democratic and destabilizing activities. France, too, has articulated its strategy for the Black Sea. The EU and Germany are developing their respective Black Sea strategies.
Since Russia took over Crimea, it has been making it harder for ships to travel across the Black Sea by using floating mines, jamming GPS signals, and entering Romania and Bulgaria’s Exclusive Economic Zone for naval exercises. Russian belligerence increasingly jeopardizes connectivity, regional energy projects, and global food security. Russian activities appear to reenact the nineteenth-century Tsarist attempt to block the Danube grain trade, leading to the Crimean War in 1853. A participant in the conflict, British captain Edmund Spencer, warned of Russian control in the nineteenth century by stating that “such a position would enable [Russia] to hold in her hands the keys to Europe and Asia and must be regarded as one of the most disastrous events that could happen.”
With extensive borders on the Black and Mediterranean Seas, Türkiye occupies a strategic geography affecting both IMEC and CACE initiatives. It holds substantial national interests to facilitate and benefit from both corridors. A Russian Crimea and consequent control of the Black Sea would imperil Türkiye’s backyard and reignite the historic Russo-Turkish contest over control of the Black Sea. Geopolitical pressures may push Türkiye to change how it strictly interprets the eight-nation Montreux Convention, which prevents NATO and allied navies from sailing through the Dardanelles into the Black Sea to protect freedom of navigation.
European Territorial Integrity And Economic Security
A strong and growing CACE protects the borders of European countries on the Black Sea and boosts the continent’s economic security by allowing safe and reliable trade with the Caucasus and Central Asia. Economic interests that energized historic trade routes from Central Asia to Europe are reemerging, encouraged by growing infrastructure: energy and digital networks. Central Asian nations are demonstrating a renewed purpose in enhanced regional coordination and greater outreach to Europe, the Middle East, and India.
The future of the Caucasus’ prosperity rests in facilitating Central Asia-Europe trade. Significant economic, infrastructure, and political development are underway from Uzbekistan to Romania and between to promote and strengthen transcontinental economic commerce and exchange. The United States’ stated Black Sea and Central Asian strategies call for more connectivity and commerce between Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe. The United States has substantial energy investments in the region and stands to benefit from further development and accessibility to the region’s mineral resources. Europe’s energy and economic security needs demand a robust and resilient economic engagement with the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The interests of the United States, Europe, Central Asia, and the Caucasus converge in establishing a Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe Economic Corridor as soon as possible. The Three Seas Summit in Warsaw offers an opportunity to reinforce and expand the 3SI vision with a determined outreach to a region surrounding the neighboring Caspian Sea. The central regional nodes of prospective CACE, including Romania, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan, should lead the way in collaborating with host Poland to launch CACE at the upcoming 3SI Summit, with strong support from the United States and the European Union.
