The State Of The Union Is Great For Iran

The state of the union is great if you happen to be Iran.

On Tuesday, during the State of the Union address, President Barack Obama discussed his view of the continuing controversy over Iran's nuclear program. "Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran," he said, "where, for the first time in a decade, we've halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material."

But has Iran's stockpile shrunk? Under a deal concluded last November, Iran halted work on the most dangerous material, 20 percent refined uranium. However, Iran is still making lower-grade uranium. According to a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency last November, Iran's stockpiles of low enriched uranium gas and 5 percent enriched uranium were both growing. Also, the agency cautioned that their figures only covered "declared sites," the nuclear facilities Iran has publicly acknowledged and allowed to be inspected.

What is being done in the secret sites is anybody's guess. Last December, the United Statesreported to United Nations Security Council monitors that Iran had attempted to obtain illegal equipment for the IR-40 research reactor at the Arak nuclear complex, which could be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium. So it is simply not correct to imply that all of Iran's nuclear stockpiles are shrinking, or that progress on the nuclear program is halted.

"Between now and this spring," the president continued, "we have a chance to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that prevents a nuclear-armed Iran; secures America and our allies - including Israel; while avoiding yet another Middle East conflict." Obama made it sound like this was a new, fresh opportunity for arms control. In fact, it is a continuation of the negotiations that were supposed to have reached an agreement last November. The Islamic Republic paid no penalty for using delaying tactics that pushed negotiations past that deadline (or the previous one of July 20). And the Obama administration seems content to allow talks to continue indefinitely. The White House is not threatening any consequences if the new deadline - which could be this spring, or as late as July - passes without a deal. It is another meaningless red line that Tehran can take with a grain of salt.

Congress is poised to establish consequences if the White House won't. The Nuclear Weapon Free Act, sponsored by Sens. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., would impose increased sanctions should Iran fail "to reach a final agreement in a discernible time frame." The bill has bipartisan, veto-proof backing in both houses of Congress. In a joint statement last month, Menendez and Kirk reiterated that any deal reached with Iran must "dismantle, not just stall, Iran's illicit nuclear program and prevent Iran from ever becoming a threshold nuclear weapons state" and they would "act decisively" if Tehran does not meet these terms.

Obama lectured the Congress on the alleged dangers of a sanctions bill, saying they would "all but guarantee that diplomacy fails" and lead to war. A more skilled diplomat would use the pressure from Congress as a lever against Tehran, telling the Iranians that unless they hurried up and signed a deal his hands would be tied. He could write it off as the realities of dealing with a democracy. Instead, Obama threatens Congress, and legitimizes Iran's potential responses to the sanctions bill once passed. This is indicative of Obama's worldview. He sees Iran as a potential partner and Congress as a current adversary, instead of the other way around.

In fact the Nuclear Weapon Free Act is the necessary stick in an American negotiation posture that seems to be all carrots. Sanctions in this context are not the lead-up to conflict, but an internationally recognized means of coercion short of war. Congress could as easily argue that it is the White House strategy that is more likely to lead to instability in the Middle East, because it has so far failed to reach its objective of a durable agreement that would prevent Iran from constructing, testing, manufacturing and deploying nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile Tehran can take heart from the president's speech. The state of the union is still as confused as ever.