As every tourist who has strayed into a bazaar or souk knows, Middle Easterners drive a hard bargain. And the Iranians, with their long history of strategy and commerce, are among the region's most savvy negotiators. President Trump's pointman for the region, Steve Witkoff, is finding this out the hard way.
The President touched off fevered international speculation when, during his April 7th Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he unexpectedly announced that the U.S. would be holding direct talks over Iran's nuclear program. The process has unfolded quickly since then, with Witkoff traveling to Oman (and most recently to Rome) to hold consultations with Iranian officials over the future of their regime's nuclear effort.
The initial results left a great deal to be desired. Fresh off his preliminary talks in Muscat, Witkoff publicly raised the possibility of establishing a cap on Iranian uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent – precisely the level set by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Predictably, this raised worries among national security experts about the regime's ability to preserve a latent nuclear capability, and prompted charges that Trump's Iran deal was shaping up to be nothing more than "Obama 2.0."
Since then, undoubtedly due to internal pressure from the White House, Witkoff has walked back his initial formulation. "A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal," he subsequently wrote on X. "Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East — meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program."
That objective still holds – for now. But there's a clear danger that it will soften over time, perhaps significantly so.
In his conversation with regional leaders, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has made clear that his government's right to enrich uranium is "non-negotiable," and decidedly not on the diplomatic table.
To that end, Iranian officials have floated the idea of a protracted three-stage plan that would see the Islamic Republic cap its uranium enrichment in exchange for a rollback of U.S. sanctions. All of which reflects Iran's long-standing strategy of drawing out diplomacy with the West for as long as possible in order to add permanence to its nuclear effort.
That's a real danger, since Iran is perilously close to nuclear status, and steadily drawing closer. The Islamic Republic is already enriching uranium to 60% purity, and is now just a short technical step away (and mere weeks) from the 90% enrichment needed for a nuclear device.
Moreover, Iran's work on weaponization – that is, turning highly-enriched uranium into a usable nuclear device – is likewise proceeding apace, and according to some estimates the process could be perfected within as little as six months.
The ball, then, is squarely in Washington's court. In coming days, the White House will need to decide on the parameters of its dialogue with Iran, and precisely how long it is prepared to talk with the Iranian before contemplating other, more direct options of preventing it from going nuclear.
President Trump has made clear he hopes the issue can be resolved peacefully. In order for that to have a chance of happening, though, America's approach will need to stick to a clear bottom line. The Iranian regime needs to understand in unequivocal terms that if it wants to stay in business, it needs to get out of the nuclear business altogether.
Any deal that falls short of that formulation will be a political victory for the ayatollahs—and a strategic risk for everyone else.
