Is the Gaza war truly over? On October 8, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had come to terms on a deal to cease hostilities and exchange hostages, something that had been largely unthinkable just weeks prior. "I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan," the president posted on his Truth Social account. "This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace."
Grandiose rhetoric aside, the agreement unquestionably represents a seminal achievement—if only a preliminary one. Implementing it will require Israel, the United States, and everyone else to grapple with a number of variables.
International Attention Is Vital
It was President Trump's sustained attention that broke the long-standing impasse between Israel and Hamas, forcing both sides to make the meaningful concessions that made this new agreement possible. That, however, is just the beginning, because keeping the peace will require ongoing international involvement—and investment.
I have argued that the key to a truly sustainable "generation after" plan for Gaza entails enhanced security for Israel, a serious post-war reconstruction campaign, and a thorough deradicalization of the Palestinian population. None of those things can be accomplished by Israel alone, or even with the support of just the United States. Broader international backing, both financial and practical, will be needed. That means, first and foremost, that Israel's Arab neighbors will need to take on bigger roles in terms of ensuring the Jewish state's security and in laying the foundation for a prosperous and moderate Palestinian populace. Currently, it's not at all clear that they are prepared to do so.
Palestinian Governance Is Deeply Uncertain
The central question in any discussion of the future of Gaza is who will end up ruling? Israel has long maintained that Hamas cannot play any role at all in future Palestinian politics, but the new peace deal stops short of compelling that. Instead, it allows the Islamist group to remain a factor (albeit a diminished one) in the conversation about Palestinian governance—something that may fundamentally upend progress in the future.
Another variable is the role of the rival Palestinian Authority (PA), which rules the West Bank. President Trump's 20-point plan envisions an eventual role for the PA, following sufficient reforms. But, after decades of misrule, the PA is wildly unpopular among Palestinians themselves. Mahmoud Abbas, the PA's president, has failed to create a durable plan for leadership succession. His inevitable passage will virtually guarantee a struggle for power, for political direction, and for the soul of the PA itself.
In other words, there is currently no clear pathway for political transition in "Palestine"—something that is liable to become a big problem in the months ahead.
A New Opportunity for the Abraham Accords
Back in 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Sudan (and subsequently Morocco) broke new ground when they formally signed agreements normalizing relations with Israel. Five years on, those deals—colloquially known as the Abraham Accords—aren't exactly thriving. Still, they are surviving, as officials in Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Rabat quietly advance their economic and political ties to the Jewish state.
Even so, it's fair to say that the ongoing Gaza war, and an inflamed Arab "street," has made it difficult for those states to capitalize on the potential of partnership with Israel. It has also ruled out the possibility of an expansion of the Accords to include other countries, as prospective entrants (like Saudi Arabia) have hardened their positions. The new Israel-Hamas deal has the potential to change all that. It effectively wipes the slate clean, establishing at least a pathway for future Palestinian governance—and thereby providing a reason for those countries to take a second look at the feasibility, and desirability, of normalization with Israel.
Iran Remains a Spoiler
For decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to use Palestinian proxies as a tool to disrupt and destabilize Israel. The culmination of this dark vision, and the fruit of ongoing Iranian financial and logistical support, was the audacious campaign of terror carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. As has become abundantly clear since, that effort was part of a larger Iranian plan to attack the Jewish state simultaneously on multiple fronts.
Those ambitions continue unabated. Just hours after news of the ceasefire broke, it was reported that Israel's internal security service, the Shin Bet, had apprehended a shipment of advanced Iranian weaponry destined for militants in the West Bank. The implications are unmistakable: Iran, having lost leverage over one part of the Palestinian "arena" as a result of Israeli victories against Hamas in Gaza, is seeking to make inroads by stoking instability elsewhere. If it succeeds in doing so, it will undermine the fragile status quo that has now been struck and plunge Israel and the Palestinians back into conflict.
For all those challenges, the current mood—both in Washington and in Jerusalem—is one of cautious optimism. To be sure, the practical hurdles to a comprehensive peace deal are legion. So, too, are the challenges of creating anything resembling long-term stability, for both Israelis and Palestinians.
Even so, for the first time in two years, the beginning of the end of the current conflict might be in sight.
Or, at least, the end of the beginning could be.
