Give Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky credit for creativity. Over the past month, the combined American and Israeli campaign against Iran has shifted global attention to the Middle East, and away from other pressing conflicts – including Ukraine's ongoing fight against Russian aggression, now in its fifth year.
That shift has raised legitimate worries in Kyiv. One is that America's appetite for supporting Ukraine, already uncertain under the Trump administration, might dwindle further as U.S. resources and political capital are consumed elsewhere. Another is that critical military aid from Western powers might be diverted to the Middle East. Finally, the surging price of world oil promises to alleviate the Kremlin's economic burden, making its war effort easier to sustain.
Kyiv, though, is doing something about it. In late March, Zelensky embarked upon a whirlwind multination tour of the Middle East, visiting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan. In each, he inked new defense deals whereby Ukraine would share its hard-fought expertise in dealing with Iranian-designed drones and missiles. In the process, he successfully positioned his country as a key partner for regional defense – and a tangible contributor to the broader effort against Iran.
Part of the reason is practical. As experts like Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace note, Ukraine's dynamic drone industry remains "undercapitalized," while the Gulf states are awash in cash. That makes them a logical market for a Ukrainian government that is eager to share, and profit from, its drone expertise.
But part is undoubtedly strategic. Zelensky's outreach sends a clear signal that, as far as Kyiv is concerned, its fight against Russia and the U.S.-Israeli fight against Iran aren't separate fronts. Rather, they are different aspects of a common challenge facing the international community – a consolidated "axis" of revisionist states seeking to subvert the existing world order. The message to Washington is unmistakable: America needs to stay the course in what is fundamentally a shared fight.
At the same time, Ukraine is adapting in other ways as well. The past month of the Iran conflict has seen global energy prices spike, providing a boon to energy suppliers such as Russia. The benefits have been substantial. According to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Institute, Russia earned roughly $760 million from oil exports in the month of March, nearly doubling its monthly energy revenue.
Moreover, this economic windfall is only expected to expand over time. If the war lasts a month-and-a-half, KSE predicts Russia will gain an extra $45 billion in extra budget revenue. If it lasts a quarter of a year, that figure will rise to nearly $100 billion. And if the conflict lingers for six months, Russia's windfall will be in excess of $151 billion – allowing it to almost cover the annual costs of its war on Ukraine (which are projected to hit $167 billion this year).
Such a windfall, however, depends on Russia keeping up its current energy output. That's why Russia's energy infrastructure has become a major military target for Kyiv in recent days. Extensive Ukrainian drone strikes have hit Russia's refineries, its pipelines and its ports, with devastating effect. Reuters reports that, as a result of recent Ukrainian strikes, "at least 20% of Russia's total export capacity is out of order" – and Russian oil exports are declining by 1 million barrels per day. In other words, Kyiv has succeeded in dealing a real body blow to Russia's war machine.
The resulting message is crucial. Ukraine is demonstrating, both in word and in deed, that it can help shape the shared fight against today's revisionist axis. Here's hoping that the Trump administration takes notice.
About the Author:
Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
