Africa Political Monitor No. 39

RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA TARGETS AFRICA’S HEALTH SECTOR
Moscow is stepping up its efforts to spread anti-West propaganda in Africa, now focusing on discrediting health programs sponsored by Western funds. With the recent rollout of vaccines against diseases such as mpox, healthcare systems in Africa have become perfect candidates for new Russian disinformation campaigns. Capitalizing on longstanding mistrust rooted in colonial-era medical campaigns, Russia is now amplifying misleading claims that Western initiatives are spreading illness rather than preventing it. Using paid influencers and Russian media outlets, the Kremlin has built a network of African anti-Western information operations in countries like Burkina Faso. The objective of the efforts, U.S. and European officials say, is to undermine public trust and undermine Western interests on the continent. (New York Times, October 14, 2024)

SOUTH AFRICA DOWNGRADES ITS TAIWAN DIPLOMACY
South Africa’s government has moved to downgrade Taiwan’s diplomatic presence in the country by relocating its Taipei Liaison Office from Pretoria to Johannesburg, reflecting mounting pressure from Beijing. The move, which is part of an effort by the ruling African National Congress (ANC) to assure China of its loyalty, comes just months after South Africa’s most recent election, as a result of which the ANC lost its majority and was forced to form a unity government with assorted opposition groups. One of them is the Democratic Alliance (DA), which has traditionally voiced concerns over China's human rights record and backed Taiwan. But President Cyril Ramaphosa has underscored South Africa’s commitment to the "One-China policy," and its most recent pressure on Taiwan appears to be an effort to forge a unified stance on relations with Beijing within the new coalition. (VOA News, October 21, 2024)

KENYA'S POLITICAL SHAKEUP
Kenya's Senate has voted to remove Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua from office in a surprise maneuver that is sure to scramble politics and ethnic tensions in one of East Africa's most stable democracies. The impeachment comes about five months into public unrest over a contentious finance bill, and is seen by many as an attempt by President William Ruto to consolidate power by getting rid of Gachagua, an increasingly divisive figure. However, Gachagua's impeachment has ignited outrage among his grassroots supporters, who view the move as a betrayal that may lead to fissures in the long-running ethnic Kikuyu-Kalenjin axis that dominated Kenya for many years.

Ruto has since appointed Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki to replace Gachagua as vice president, but that move too is not without controversy. Kindiki has been linked to police crackdowns on anti-governmental demonstrations, which have been criticized by human rights groups amid fears of a further deterioration in the country’s political crisis. (New York Times, October 18, 2024)

HUNGARY MAKES A DEAL WITH CHAD…
Hungary recently enacted a deal with Chad to send millions of dollars in aid to halt mass migration out of Africa and into Europe. This is Hungary’s first ever humanitarian deal with an African nation, and includes a pledge of $200 million of aid to stabilize the state. The deal aims to create a better local conditions for African citizens as an alternative to emigration to Europe. Additionally, 200 soldiers from Hungary will be deployed to Chad to help train Chadian forces to more effectively fight extremist groups like Boko Haram.

The partnership, while surprising, aligns with some of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s policy preferences, including intensified migration restrictions into the EU and future strategic partnerships in Africa. While Russia, China and the U.S. are competing for influence in Africa, Hungary may be positioning itself to reap some of the continent’s benefits as well, Chadian leader Mahamat Déby stands to benefit as well, providing him with a strong European ally that could improve his domestic position.(Al Jazeera, October 23, 2024)

…WHILE CHAD LAUNCHES MILITARY OPERATION
Following a deadly attack by Boko Haram that killed over 40 Chadian troops and several civilians in the Lake Chad Basin, the Déby government has launched a full-scale counterterrorism operation aimed at tracking and eliminating the assailants. The offensive, dubbed “Haskanite,” is aimed at targeting the nearly 300 Boko Haram fighters involved in the incident who escaped into the neighboring areas of Lake Chad. Experts suggest a coordinated response from all countries bordering Lake Chad—Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria—is necessary to effectively combat the jihadist threat. The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) is expected to assist in the operation. (VOA News, October 29, 2024)