Africa Political Monitor No. 40

UK SANCTIONS RUSSIAN MERCENARIES IN AFRICA
The United Kingdom has levied its most extensive sanctions since May 2023 at Russian-backed mercenary groups and individuals. Among the 56 designations are Africa Corps, the Wagner Group’s successor, and 11 individuals accused of human rights abuses and threatening security in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. The measures are aimed at disrupting Russia's efforts to expand its influence in Africa, and to undermine its military capabilities in Ukraine. The sanctions come as the Kremlin seeks greater influence in Africa, particularly in the Sahel, and taking advantage of the reduced military and political presence of Western powers like the U.S. and France. (Al Jazeera, November 7, 2024)

MOZAMBIQUE ELECTION SPARKS PROTESTS, CRACKDOWN
A wave of violent protests have erupted in Mozambique following a fraught election last month. The Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo), the country’s incumbent party led by Daniel Chapo, claimed victory in the October 24th presidential election. However, opposition parties have claimed that Frelimo committed fraud via vote manipulation and ballot stuffing – a claim that has been upheld by the EU’s dedicated observer team, which highlighted “irregularities” in the race.

The election results follow a number of violent actions committed by Frelimo against another leading candidate, Venancio Mondlane, and his team. Mondlane’s lawyer and a political spokesperson in support of Mondlane were killed just before the election, resulting in major protests and condemnation of the ruling party, which has been in power since Mozambique’s independence in 1975. For its part, the government has responded to the violence with a police crackdown that has resulted in as many as 50 deaths so far, as well as internet blackouts and social media shutdowns. (VOA News, November 9, 2024)

RUSSIA EXPANDS MILITARY FOOTPRINT IN EQUATORIAL GUINEA
Russia has sent as many as 200 military instructors to Equatorial Guinea in recent weeks, security officials say, in what amounts to a significant expansion of its presence in West Africa. Instructors are training elite guards in the country's two main cities, Malabo and Bata, as part of a broader push by Russia to expand its presence in the region after a recent setback in Mali. The outreach is aimed at consolidating the presidency of 82-year-old President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, in power since 1979, and grooming his son for succession. It also reflects Russian efforts to tap into Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas resources amid a decline in energy investment on the part of the United States. (Reuters, November 12, 2024)

ALLIANCE OF CHANGE WINS BIG IN MAURITIUS
In what amounts to a political landslide, Mauritius' Alliance of Change secured 60 out of 64 parliamentary seats in the country’s recent general election. The new ruling party triumphed over the Lepep Alliance, which dropped from 42 seats in 2019 to just two. Public dissatisfaction over the cost-of-living crisis, along with concerns about governance and corruption, played a major role in the outcome. (Reuters, BBC, 2024)

UN AGAIN CALLS FOR A CEASEFIRE IN SUDAN
The United Nations has reiterated its call for a ceasefire in Sudan, citing significant foreign backing and the continued influx of weapons for both the rebel RSF and pro-government forces. Russia and Egypt have reportedly provided the Sudanese armed forces with crucial supplies, while the United Arab Emirates is suspected to be shipping arms to RSF cardres through Chad. (VOA News, November 12, 2024)

OPPOSITION LEADER CLINCHES VICTORY IN SOMALILAND'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi has emerged as the winner of Somaliland's presidential election after securing 64% of the vote over the incumbent, Musa Abdi Bihi. Abdullahi, a former speaker of parliament, takes over as the sixth president of Somaliland since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991. During his campaign, Abdullahi – popularly known as “Irro” – promised to review a controversial deal with Ethiopia to lease part of Somaliland's coastline for a naval base, a move that has sharpened tensions with Somalia. Though not recognized internationally, Somaliland has carried out regular democratic elections, and Irro’s victory is seen as a move toward unification and greater stability. (BBC, November 19, 2024)